currency outlook · updated 1 October 2026
US Dollar (USD) macro outlook
US Dollar (USD) currently carries a bullish macro bias, scoring 61 out of 100 on the composite, which is a bullish macro lean. The Federal Reserve stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 4%. The composite blends fundamentals, central bank stance, bank research, seasonality, retail sentiment read contrarian and positioning into one number on published weights, refreshed through the day.
Composite score
61
Bullish
56+ bullish · 45 to 55 neutral · under 45 bearish
What is behind the number.
- Federal Reserve
- Reads holding restrictive, policy rate 4%
- Institutional positioning
- Net short
- Inflation
- 3.4%
- Unemployment
- 4.1%
- PMI
- 58.4
- GDP
- 2.2%
How this score is built
Published weights, not a black box.
The same method applies to every market on this site, so a 56 here means what a 56 means anywhere else.
- Fundamentals22.5%
- Central bank18%
- Bank research18%
- Seasonality13.5%
- Retail sentiment10%
- COT level9%
- COT flow9%
The rest of the board
Ranked strongest to weakest on the same scale.
About US Dollar
Is US Dollar bullish or bearish right now?
As of 1 October 2026, US Dollar carries a bullish macro bias, scoring 61 out of 100 on the composite. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish, and the band between is neutral.
What is driving US Dollar?
The Federal Reserve stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 4%. Positioning, bank research consensus and fundamentals are folded into the US Dollar composite, updated through the day.
What is the Federal Reserve policy stance?
The Federal Reserve stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 4%. WatchTower tracks the full rate path and forward guidance in the terminal.
How is the US Dollar macro score calculated?
The composite runs on published weights: fundamentals 22.5%, central bank 18%, bank research 18%, seasonality 13.5%, retail sentiment 10% read contrarian, COT level 9% and COT flow 9%. Equity indices use a different set including a weighted earnings beat rate. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish.
Where can I track US Dollar in real time?
Open WatchTower Terminal free to see the live US Dollar score, its full component breakdown and history alongside every G10 currency, metals and global indices.
Track it live
This is 1 number. The terminal shows the working.
Every component, the history of how the score has moved, the positioning behind it and the research it came from. 32 panels free, no card.