currency outlook · updated 1 October 2026
Japanese Yen (JPY) macro outlook
Japanese Yen (JPY) currently carries a bearish macro bias, scoring 42 out of 100 on the composite, which is a bearish macro lean. The Bank of Japan stance currently reads on hold, with the policy rate at 1.25%. The composite blends fundamentals, central bank stance, bank research, seasonality, retail sentiment read contrarian and positioning into one number on published weights, refreshed through the day.
Composite score
42
Bearish
56+ bullish · 45 to 55 neutral · under 45 bearish
What is behind the number.
- Bank of Japan
- Reads on hold, policy rate 1.25%
- Institutional positioning
- Net long · at a crowded long extreme
- Inflation
- 1.9%
- Unemployment
- 2.4%
- PMI
- 52.5
- GDP
- 3%
How this score is built
Published weights, not a black box.
The same method applies to every market on this site, so a 56 here means what a 56 means anywhere else.
- Fundamentals22.5%
- Central bank18%
- Bank research18%
- Seasonality13.5%
- Retail sentiment10%
- COT level9%
- COT flow9%
The rest of the board
Ranked strongest to weakest on the same scale.
About Japanese Yen
Is Japanese Yen bullish or bearish right now?
As of 1 October 2026, Japanese Yen carries a bearish macro bias, scoring 42 out of 100 on the composite. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish, and the band between is neutral.
What is driving Japanese Yen?
The Bank of Japan stance currently reads on hold, with the policy rate at 1.25%. Positioning, bank research consensus and fundamentals are folded into the Japanese Yen composite, updated through the day.
What is the Bank of Japan policy stance?
The Bank of Japan stance currently reads on hold, with the policy rate at 1.25%. WatchTower tracks the full rate path and forward guidance in the terminal.
How is the Japanese Yen macro score calculated?
The composite runs on published weights: fundamentals 22.5%, central bank 18%, bank research 18%, seasonality 13.5%, retail sentiment 10% read contrarian, COT level 9% and COT flow 9%. Equity indices use a different set including a weighted earnings beat rate. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish.
Where can I track Japanese Yen in real time?
Open WatchTower Terminal free to see the live Japanese Yen score, its full component breakdown and history alongside every G10 currency, metals and global indices.
Track it live
This is 1 number. The terminal shows the working.
Every component, the history of how the score has moved, the positioning behind it and the research it came from. 32 panels free, no card.