currency outlook · updated 1 October 2026
Australian Dollar (AUD) macro outlook
Australian Dollar (AUD) currently carries a bearish macro bias, scoring 43 out of 100 on the composite, which is a bearish macro lean. The Reserve Bank of Australia stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 4.6%. The composite blends fundamentals, central bank stance, bank research, seasonality, retail sentiment read contrarian and positioning into one number on published weights, refreshed through the day.
Composite score
43
Bearish
56+ bullish · 45 to 55 neutral · under 45 bearish
What is behind the number.
- Reserve Bank of Australia
- Reads holding restrictive, policy rate 4.6%
- Institutional positioning
- Net long
- Inflation
- 4%
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- PMI
- 50.8
- GDP
- 0.4%
How this score is built
Published weights, not a black box.
The same method applies to every market on this site, so a 56 here means what a 56 means anywhere else.
- Fundamentals22.5%
- Central bank18%
- Bank research18%
- Seasonality13.5%
- Retail sentiment10%
- COT level9%
- COT flow9%
The rest of the board
Ranked strongest to weakest on the same scale.
About Australian Dollar
Is Australian Dollar bullish or bearish right now?
As of 1 October 2026, Australian Dollar carries a bearish macro bias, scoring 43 out of 100 on the composite. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish, and the band between is neutral.
What is driving Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 4.6%. Positioning, bank research consensus and fundamentals are folded into the Australian Dollar composite, updated through the day.
What is the Reserve Bank of Australia policy stance?
The Reserve Bank of Australia stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 4.6%. WatchTower tracks the full rate path and forward guidance in the terminal.
How is the Australian Dollar macro score calculated?
The composite runs on published weights: fundamentals 22.5%, central bank 18%, bank research 18%, seasonality 13.5%, retail sentiment 10% read contrarian, COT level 9% and COT flow 9%. Equity indices use a different set including a weighted earnings beat rate. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish.
Where can I track Australian Dollar in real time?
Open WatchTower Terminal free to see the live Australian Dollar score, its full component breakdown and history alongside every G10 currency, metals and global indices.
Track it live
This is 1 number. The terminal shows the working.
Every component, the history of how the score has moved, the positioning behind it and the research it came from. 32 panels free, no card.