WatchTower

Free data · updated 11 August 2026

Where the crowd is most one-sided right now.

Speculative positioning and retail crowding across FX, gold, metals and indices. Each market is measured against its own 52 week range, so an extreme here is comparable to an extreme anywhere else on the board.

This describes where positioning sits in its own recent history. It is not a price forecast and it is not advice.

The standout

Speculators are at their most net short on New Zealand Dollar in two years

Speculative positioning at a range extreme is one of the oldest contrarian tells in markets. This describes where positioning sits in its own recent history, not where price is headed.

Retail crowding

Where the retail book is most lopsided, as of 16 August 2026. Read contrarian.

  • USD/CHF 79% long 79% long
  • CAD/CHF 77% long 77% long
  • CHF/JPY 28% long 72% short
  • AUD/NZD 29% long 71% short
  • EUR/JPY 30% long 70% short
  • NZD/CHF 68% long 68% long
  • NZD/CAD 68% long 68% long
  • GBP/USD 36% long 64% short

Speculative positioning

Net position against its own 52 week range, as of 11 August 2026. 80th percentile and above reads crowded long, 20th and below crowded short.

Market Reading Percentile Net position
New Zealand Dollar Most net-short in 2y+ 0th -33,461
Mexican Peso Most net-long in 2y+ 100th +76,282
Copper Most net-long in 2y+ 100th +79,027
Euro Most net-short in 1w 4th -60,600
Canadian Dollar Most net-short in 0w 14th -92,005
Silver Most net-short in 1w 15th +11,158
Australian Dollar Most net-long in 2mo 81st +48,541
Nikkei 225 Net long 66th +6,551

Reading this properly

A crowded market is not a timing signal.

Positioning can sit at an extreme for months. What it tells you is how much of the move is already owned, which changes the risk on a trade rather than the direction of it.

Inside the terminal, retail crowding is folded into the composite score as a contrarian input carrying 10%, and positioning carries a further 18% split across level and weekly flow.

  • Measured againstIts own 52 week range
  • Crowded long80th percentile and above
  • Crowded short20th percentile and below
  • Retail is readContrarian
  • UpdatedWeekly, with the print

Every market, not just the extremes

This is the top of the list. The terminal has all 44.

Long and short split, net position, weekly change and the 52 week percentile on every tracked market, with the history behind each one. 12 boards free, no card.