currency outlook · updated 16 August 2026
Mexican Peso (MXN) macro outlook
Mexican Peso (MXN) currently carries a neutral macro bias, scoring 53 out of 100 on the composite, which is a broadly neutral, mixed read. The Banco de México stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 6.5%. The composite blends fundamentals, central bank stance, bank research, seasonality, retail sentiment read contrarian and positioning into one number on published weights, refreshed daily.
Composite score
53
Neutral
56+ bullish · 45 to 55 neutral · under 45 bearish
What is behind the number.
- Banco de México
- Reads holding restrictive, policy rate 6.5%
- Institutional positioning
- Net long · at a crowded long extreme
- Inflation
- 3.12%
- Unemployment
- 2.9%
- PMI
- 51.3
- GDP
- 1.5%
How this score is built
Published weights, not a black box.
The same method applies to every market on this site, so a 56 here means what a 56 means anywhere else.
- Fundamentals22.5%
- Central bank18%
- Bank research18%
- Seasonality13.5%
- Retail sentiment10%
- COT level9%
- COT flow9%
The rest of the board
Ranked strongest to weakest on the same scale.
Questions
About Mexican Peso
Is Mexican Peso bullish or bearish right now?
As of 16 August 2026, Mexican Peso carries a neutral macro bias, scoring 53 out of 100 on the composite. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish, and the band between is neutral.
What is driving Mexican Peso?
The Banco de México stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 6.5%. Positioning, bank research consensus and fundamentals are folded into the Mexican Peso composite, updated daily.
What is the Banco de México policy stance?
The Banco de México stance currently reads holding restrictive, with the policy rate at 6.5%. WatchTower tracks the full rate path and forward guidance in the terminal.
How is the Mexican Peso macro score calculated?
The composite runs on published weights: fundamentals 22.5%, central bank 18%, bank research 18%, seasonality 13.5%, retail sentiment 10% read contrarian, COT level 9% and COT flow 9%. Equity indices use a different set including a weighted earnings beat rate. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish.
Where can I track Mexican Peso in real time?
Open WatchTower Terminal free to see the live Mexican Peso score, its full component breakdown and history alongside every G10 currency, metals and global indices.
Track it live
This is 1 number. The terminal shows the working.
Every component, the history of how the score has moved, the positioning behind it and the research it came from. 12 boards free, no card.