Seasonality · NZD/CAD · 12 November 2026
NZD/CAD seasonality: is November bullish for NZD/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), NZD/CAD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +1.35% and a median of +0.03%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +0.77% on average (median +0.70%).
Its best month on average is November (+1.35%, up in 7 of 14) and its worst is August (−1.04%, up in 3 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.58% | +1.70% | 10 of 15 | +4.42% (2012) | −4.43% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.24% | +0.07% | 8 of 15 | +3.33% (2014) | −2.23% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.20% | +0.57% | 9 of 15 | +3.30% (2014) | −4.55% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.91% | −1.14% | 7 of 15 | +1.66% (2020) | −4.38% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.63% | −0.52% | 6 of 15 | +3.04% (2024) | −4.63% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.08% | −0.43% | 5 of 15 | +5.00% (2012) | −4.63% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +0.08% | −0.00% | 7 of 15 | +2.29% (2026) | −1.65% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −1.04% | −1.02% | 3 of 15 | +2.58% (2024) | −4.25% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.05% | +0.02% | 8 of 15 | +4.93% (2013) | −3.93% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.14% | +0.32% | 9 of 15 | +3.40% (2015) | −3.51% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +1.35% | +0.03% | 7 of 14 | +6.59% (2018) | −1.89% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.77% | +0.70% | 11 of 15 | +8.04% (2015) | −2.75% (2024) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
NZD/CAD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −0.10% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −0.10% |
| November 2023 | +3.79% |
| November 2022 | +6.50% |
| November 2021 | −1.89% |
| November 2020 | +3.37% |
| November 2019 | +1.20% |
| November 2018 | +6.59% |
| November 2017 | −0.08% |
| November 2016 | −0.89% |
| November 2015 | −0.98% |
| November 2014 | +2.15% |
| November 2013 | +0.14% |
| November 2012 | −0.86% |
Questions
Is November bullish for NZD/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), NZD/CAD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +1.35% and a median of +0.03%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −1.89% (2021) to +6.59% (2018). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for NZD/CAD?
Its best month on average is November (+1.35%, up in 7 of 14) and its worst is August (−1.04%, up in 3 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to NZD/CAD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +0.77% on average (median +0.70%).
How reliable is NZD/CAD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on NZD/CAD: NZD/CAD analysis · NZD/CAD rate differential · NZD/CAD retail sentiment · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other seasonality: USD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · NZD/USD in Nov +1.04% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/CAD in Nov +0.88% · GBP/NZD in Nov −0.40% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the NZD/CAD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.