Seasonality · NZD/USD · 12 November 2026
NZD/USD seasonality: is November bullish for NZD/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), NZD/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +1.04% and a median of +0.04%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +0.86% on average (median +0.81%).
Its best month on average is November (+1.04%, up in 7 of 14) and its worst is May (−1.30%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.19% | +1.29% | 9 of 15 | +5.65% (2012) | −7.03% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.10% | −0.90% | 6 of 15 | +4.26% (2015) | −4.21% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.43% | +0.17% | 8 of 15 | +4.92% (2016) | −4.83% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.07% | −0.32% | 7 of 15 | +4.71% (2025) | −6.77% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −1.30% | −0.55% | 7 of 15 | +3.81% (2024) | −7.92% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.32% | +2.01% | 8 of 15 | +6.64% (2012) | −5.27% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +0.27% | +0.58% | 10 of 15 | +3.58% (2026) | −3.25% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −1.27% | −1.45% | 6 of 15 | +4.96% (2024) | −4.53% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.67% | +0.32% | 8 of 15 | +7.68% (2013) | −8.05% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.41% | −0.55% | 5 of 15 | +5.88% (2015) | −6.47% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +1.04% | +0.04% | 7 of 14 | +7.30% (2022) | −5.07% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.86% | +0.81% | 11 of 15 | +5.08% (2019) | −5.36% (2024) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
NZD/USD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.16% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −0.64% |
| November 2023 | +6.02% |
| November 2022 | +7.30% |
| November 2021 | −5.07% |
| November 2020 | +6.16% |
| November 2019 | +0.08% |
| November 2018 | +5.36% |
| November 2017 | 0.00% |
| November 2016 | −1.05% |
| November 2015 | −2.84% |
| November 2014 | +0.77% |
| November 2013 | −1.45% |
| November 2012 | −0.23% |
Questions
Is November bullish for NZD/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), NZD/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +1.04% and a median of +0.04%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −5.07% (2021) to +7.30% (2022). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for NZD/USD?
Its best month on average is November (+1.04%, up in 7 of 14) and its worst is May (−1.30%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to NZD/USD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +0.86% on average (median +0.81%).
How reliable is NZD/USD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on NZD/USD: NZD/USD analysis · NZD/USD rate differential · NZD/USD retail sentiment · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/NZD in Nov −0.40% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · NZD/CAD in Nov +1.35% · NZD/CHF in Nov +0.88% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the NZD/USD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.