Seasonality · GBP/NZD · 12 November 2026
GBP/NZD seasonality: is November bullish for GBP/NZD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), GBP/NZD rose in November 6 times, with an average move of −0.40% and a median of −0.18%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, −0.34% on average (median +0.18%).
Its best month on average is April (+1.00%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is June (−0.53%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.14% | +0.36% | 9 of 15 | +3.75% (2015) | −4.03% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.43% | −0.57% | 7 of 15 | +2.77% (2019) | −3.78% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.29% | +1.27% | 9 of 15 | +4.17% (2017) | −4.42% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.00% | +0.85% | 10 of 15 | +5.32% (2017) | −2.21% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.43% | +0.27% | 8 of 15 | +6.46% (2015) | −3.63% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.53% | −0.10% | 7 of 15 | +7.94% (2015) | −13.36% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.04% | −0.42% | 5 of 15 | +4.13% (2024) | −2.68% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.95% | +1.73% | 9 of 15 | +4.84% (2013) | −2.56% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.31% | +0.09% | 9 of 15 | +5.07% (2014) | −4.62% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.12% | +0.06% | 8 of 15 | +4.52% (2017) | −4.41% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −0.40% | −0.18% | 6 of 14 | +3.40% (2013) | −5.14% (2018) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.34% | +0.18% | 8 of 15 | +4.18% (2024) | −5.82% (2015) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
GBP/NZD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.59% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −0.59% |
| November 2023 | −1.75% |
| November 2022 | −3.18% |
| November 2021 | +2.00% |
| November 2020 | −2.85% |
| November 2019 | −0.08% |
| November 2018 | −5.14% |
| November 2017 | +1.69% |
| November 2016 | +3.29% |
| November 2015 | +0.25% |
| November 2014 | −3.00% |
| November 2013 | +3.40% |
| November 2012 | −0.29% |
Questions
Is November bullish for GBP/NZD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), GBP/NZD rose in November 6 times, with an average move of −0.40% and a median of −0.18%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −5.14% (2018) to +3.40% (2013). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for GBP/NZD?
Its best month on average is April (+1.00%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is June (−0.53%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to GBP/NZD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, −0.34% on average (median +0.18%).
How reliable is GBP/NZD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on GBP/NZD: GBP/NZD analysis · GBP/NZD rate differential · GBP/NZD retail sentiment · British Pound outlook · British Pound COT positioning · BoE rate expectations · UK economic surprises · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises
Other seasonality: GBP/USD in Nov +0.56% · NZD/USD in Nov +1.04% · EUR/GBP in Nov −0.67% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/CHF in Nov +0.43% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · GBP/CAD in Nov +0.88% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the GBP/NZD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.