Free data · rates · priced as of 12 November 2026
Interest rate outlook 2027: what markets price
As of 12 November 2026, markets price the Fed's policy rate at 4.76% through July 2027, against 4.00% now: 76 bp of hikes, or about 3 quarter-point hikes. July 2027 is as far as the Fed curve reaches (its 27 July meeting); the other seven banks' curves run to the end of 2027. The widest gap is between the RBNZ (+99 bp priced) and the RBA (−21 bp).
Eight central banks to the end of 2027
| Bank | Rate now | Priced end-2027 | Priced moves | Change in a month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of New ZealandExchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) | 2.75% | 3.74% | +99 bpabout 4 quarter-point hikes | −32 bp |
| Federal ReserveExchange-traded futures | 4.00% | 4.76%curve ends 27 Jul 2027 | +76 bpabout 3 quarter-point hikes | +1 bp |
| Bank of EnglandExchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) | 4.00% | 4.75% | +75 bpabout 3 quarter-point hikes | −5 bp |
| Bank of JapanExchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) | 1.25% | 1.98% | +73 bpabout 2.9 quarter-point hikes | −16 bp |
| European Central BankExchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) | 2.50% | 3.17% | +67 bpabout 2.7 quarter-point hikes | −8 bp |
| Bank of CanadaExchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) | 2.50% | 3.16% | +66 bpabout 2.6 quarter-point hikes | −5 bp |
| Swiss National BankExchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) | 0.00% | 0.65% | +65 bpabout 2.6 quarter-point hikes | −9 bp |
| Reserve Bank of AustraliaExchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) | 4.85% | 4.64% | −21 bpabout 0.8 quarter-point cuts | −23 bp |
Priced end-2027 is the policy rate the curve implies after the bank's last 2027 meeting it reaches. Priced moves is that against the rate now, in basis points (25 bp is one quarter-point move). Change in a month compares the same meeting with our snapshot of 13 October; it reads n/a where no market-built snapshot exists yet. Market pricing is not a forecast.
Next decisions
- 8 Dec 2026Reserve Bank of AustraliaPreview
- 9 Dec 2026Federal ReservePreview
- 9 Dec 2026Bank of CanadaPreview
- 9 Dec 2026Reserve Bank of New ZealandPreview
- 10 Dec 2026Swiss National BankPreview
- 17 Dec 2026European Central BankPreview
- 17 Dec 2026Bank of EnglandPreview
- 18 Dec 2026Bank of JapanPreview
Every 2027 date, bank by bank, is on the central bank meeting calendar 2027.
Questions
Will the Fed cut rates in 2027?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price the Fed's policy rate at 4.76% through July 2027, against 4.00% now: 76 bp of hikes, or about 3 quarter-point hikes. July 2027 is as far as the Fed curve reaches (its 27 July meeting); the other seven banks' curves run to the end of 2027. A month earlier the same meeting was priced at 4.75%, so pricing has moved up 1 bp. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
How many rate cuts are priced for 2027?
Fed: 76 bp of hikes (to Jul 2027); ECB: 67 bp of hikes; Bank of England: 75 bp of hikes; Bank of Japan: 73 bp of hikes; SNB: 65 bp of hikes; RBA: 21 bp of cuts; Bank of Canada: 66 bp of hikes; RBNZ: 99 bp of hikes, as of 12 November 2026.
Which central banks are priced to diverge most in 2027?
The widest gap is between the RBNZ (+99 bp priced) and the RBA (−21 bp). A wide gap between two banks is what the rate differential on their currency pair is built from.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it, named in the table: futures or OIS where they exist, and for some banks WatchTower Terminal's model fitted to exchange-traded futures. The month-ago figures are from our daily snapshots.
WatchTower Terminal's Central bank and Rate spread panels carry these paths live, with every meeting's odds; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Background: rate differentials explained. Nothing here is financial advice.