Reserve Bank of Australia · meeting preview · 8 Dec 2026
Will the RBA cut or hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 100% chance that the RBA holds at its 8 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 4.85% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). The policy rate is 4.85% going in.
Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 78%, so the pricing has firmed by 22 points.
What is priced for 8 December
| Reading | Hike | Hold | Cut | Implied rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now12 Nov | 0% | 100% | 0% | 4.85% |
| Two weeks before29 Oct | 22% | 78% | 0% | 4.80% |
| Four weeks before15 Oct | 21% | 79% | 0% | 4.72% |
Read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) on WatchTower Terminal. The history starts with our daily snapshots; a row is missing where no market-built snapshot exists for that day.
And after December
- 9 Feb 202778% hold4.90%
- 23 Mar 2027100% hold4.90%
- 4 May 202790% hold4.88%
Questions
Will the RBA change rates in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 100% chance that the RBA holds at its 8 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 4.85% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 78%, so the pricing has firmed by 22 points.
When is the RBA's December 2026 meeting?
The RBA's monetary policy board decision is on Tuesday, 8 December 2026, per its own published calendar.
What are the odds for the RBA's December meeting?
As of 12 November 2026: hike 0%, hold 100%, cut 0%. The three are read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
What is priced after December?
9 Feb 2027: 78% hold, 4.90% implied; 23 Mar 2027: 100% hold, 4.90% implied; 4 May 2027: 90% hold, 4.88% implied.
- What is priced for the RBA, every meeting
- Every central bank meeting date in 2027
- The 2027 interest rate outlook
- AUD macro outlook
- AUD COT positioning
Reserve Bank of Australia's other meeting pages: 3 Nov 2026 (decided)
Other meetings coming up: Federal Reserve, 9 Dec · Bank of Canada, 9 Dec · Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 9 Dec · Swiss National Bank, 10 Dec · European Central Bank, 17 Dec · Bank of England, 17 Dec · Bank of Japan, 18 Dec
In WatchTower Terminal the Central bank panel moves with the pricing through the day; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Nothing here is financial advice.