Gold macro outlook · updated 12 November 2026
Is gold bullish or bearish?
As of 12 November 2026, gold scores 36 out of 100 on the WatchTower Terminal macro composite, a bearish read. Gold carries a bearish macro bias, with a composite score of 37/100. A broadly tightening central-bank stance keeps real yields elevated, which remains a structural headwind, while firmer inflation data has weakened the disinflation narrative that had supported recovery. Speculative positioning is net long and mid-range, so there is no crowding to fade. Geopolitical risks and softer oil provide some near-term support.
Composite score
36
Bearish
56+ bullish · 45 to 55 neutral · under 45 bearish
Reading of 12 Nov, 09:30 London
What is behind the number.
- Institutional positioning
- Net long
Current drivers
- Tightening policy keeps real yields elevated as a structural headwind
- Firmer inflation data weakens the disinflation narrative
- Safe-haven demand offset by a hawkish policy tilt
- Geopolitical risks and softer oil offer near-term support
How this score is built
Published weights, not a black box.
Gold and silver are scored on the weights shown here, on the same 0 to 100 scale as every other market, so a 56 here means what a 56 means anywhere else.
- Central bank30%
- COT level25%
- Bank research20%
- COT flow15%
- Seasonality10%
The rest of the board
Ranked strongest to weakest on the same scale.
About Gold
Is Gold bullish or bearish right now?
As of 12 November 2026, Gold carries a bearish macro read, scoring 36 out of 100 on the composite. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish, and the band between is neutral.
What is driving Gold?
Current drivers include: Tightening policy keeps real yields elevated as a structural headwind; Firmer inflation data weakens the disinflation narrative; Safe-haven demand offset by a hawkish policy tilt; Geopolitical risks and softer oil offer near-term support.
How is the Gold macro score calculated?
Gold runs on the monetary metal weights: central bank 30%, cot level 25%, bank research 20%, cot flow 15%, seasonality 10%. The central bank input is the developed-market policy stance, inverted, and the score is re-weighted over the inputs gold actually has. 56 and above reads bullish, below 45 reads bearish.
Where can I track Gold in real time?
This page reads it live with no account. In WatchTower Terminal, Asset scores carries the live Gold score and every driver behind it, alongside every G10 currency, metals and global indices, and Asset in full and Score history add the written read and the full history. The terminal is $10 for your first month, then $49 a month, or $490 a year with 2 months free. Cancel from Billing at any time.
Track it live
This is 1 number. The terminal shows the working.
Every component and the weight it carries, in Asset scores, with the history of how the score has moved, the positioning behind it and the research it came from. The terminal is $10 for your first month, then $49 a month. Cancel from Billing at any time.