Seasonality · Gold · 12 November 2026
Gold seasonality: is November bullish for gold?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), gold rose in November 6 times, with an average move of −0.96% and a median of −0.39%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.50% on average (median +0.76%).
Its best month on average is January (+4.07%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is September (−1.41%, up in 4 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +4.07% | +4.25% | 11 of 15 | +11.08% (2012) | −2.36% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.60% | −0.69% | 6 of 15 | +10.60% (2026) | −6.57% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.90% | +0.10% | 8 of 15 | +10.60% (2025) | −10.85% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.78% | +0.65% | 8 of 15 | +6.11% (2020) | −7.75% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.83% | −0.85% | 6 of 15 | +7.77% (2021) | −6.01% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −1.02% | −1.51% | 5 of 15 | +8.71% (2016) | −12.15% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +1.87% | +1.71% | 11 of 15 | +10.30% (2020) | −6.54% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +2.00% | +2.21% | 10 of 15 | +9.12% (2026) | −3.40% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −1.41% | −3.14% | 4 of 15 | +10.16% (2025) | −6.58% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.07% | −0.25% | 7 of 15 | +6.87% (2023) | −6.87% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −0.96% | −0.39% | 6 of 14 | +7.26% (2022) | −7.79% (2016) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.50% | +0.76% | 9 of 15 | +6.41% (2020) | −10.48% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
Gold in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +7.07% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −3.36% |
| November 2023 | +3.15% |
| November 2022 | +7.26% |
| November 2021 | −0.41% |
| November 2020 | −5.27% |
| November 2019 | −3.25% |
| November 2018 | +0.91% |
| November 2017 | +0.49% |
| November 2016 | −7.79% |
| November 2015 | −6.67% |
| November 2014 | +0.31% |
| November 2013 | −5.52% |
| November 2012 | −0.37% |
Questions
Is November bullish for gold?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), gold rose in November 6 times, with an average move of −0.96% and a median of −0.39%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −7.79% (2016) to +7.26% (2022). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for gold?
Its best month on average is January (+4.07%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is September (−1.41%, up in 4 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end.
What happens to gold in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.50% on average (median +0.76%).
How reliable is gold seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the gold seasonal pattern mixed across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on gold: XAUUSD analysis · Gold retail sentiment · Gold outlook · Gold COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the Gold path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.