Seasonality · Copper · 12 November 2026
Copper seasonality: is November bullish for copper?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), copper rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +2.35% and a median of +1.96%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +1.49% on average (median +1.94%).
Its best month on average is November (+2.35%, up in 8 of 14) and its worst is May (−1.41%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.87% | +1.05% | 9 of 15 | +10.90% (2023) | −11.71% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +2.30% | +2.29% | 9 of 15 | +15.09% (2021) | −4.94% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.86% | −1.41% | 6 of 15 | +10.69% (2025) | −12.28% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.30% | +0.12% | 9 of 15 | +13.91% (2024) | −8.44% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −1.41% | −0.29% | 7 of 15 | +7.67% (2026) | −12.12% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.01% | +2.56% | 8 of 15 | +12.49% (2020) | −13.62% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.72% | +0.86% | 8 of 15 | +6.66% (2017) | −14.32% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.01% | −1.10% | 7 of 15 | +7.16% (2017) | −6.48% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.99% | +0.15% | 8 of 15 | +8.71% (2012) | −6.54% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.21% | −0.68% | 6 of 15 | +6.82% (2021) | −6.40% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +2.35% | +1.96% | 8 of 14 | +19.41% (2016) | −11.61% (2015) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +1.49% | +1.94% | 10 of 15 | +7.72% (2017) | −5.61% (2018) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
Copper in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +4.69% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −5.98% |
| November 2023 | +5.52% |
| November 2022 | +10.76% |
| November 2021 | −2.02% |
| November 2020 | +12.81% |
| November 2019 | +0.15% |
| November 2018 | +4.83% |
| November 2017 | −1.19% |
| November 2016 | +19.41% |
| November 2015 | −11.61% |
| November 2014 | −6.14% |
| November 2013 | −2.12% |
| November 2012 | +3.77% |
Questions
Is November bullish for copper?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), copper rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +2.35% and a median of +1.96%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −11.61% (2015) to +19.41% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for copper?
Its best month on average is November (+2.35%, up in 8 of 14) and its worst is May (−1.41%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end.
What happens to copper in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +1.49% on average (median +1.94%).
How reliable is copper seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the copper seasonal pattern mixed across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on copper: Copper outlook · Copper COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Gold in Nov −0.96% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the Copper path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.