Seasonality · Palladium · 12 November 2026
Palladium seasonality: is November bullish for palladium?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), palladium rose in November 9 times, with an average move of +0.80% and a median of +2.70%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +2.40% on average (median +2.55%).
Its best month on average is July (+3.78%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is May (−3.70%, up in 5 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.77% | +3.13% | 8 of 15 | +23.20% (2022) | −11.30% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +1.75% | +2.96% | 10 of 15 | +17.86% (2019) | −16.06% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.63% | +3.56% | 8 of 15 | +13.80% (2016) | −17.00% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.16% | +3.05% | 11 of 15 | +12.74% (2021) | −15.13% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −3.70% | −3.06% | 5 of 15 | +7.63% (2013) | −13.53% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.60% | −2.93% | 7 of 15 | +15.27% (2019) | −13.40% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +3.78% | +4.39% | 10 of 15 | +18.82% (2016) | −9.19% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.33% | +0.93% | 8 of 15 | +6.36% (2026) | −8.38% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +1.40% | +3.99% | 12 of 15 | +16.49% (2025) | −23.03% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −1.49% | +1.33% | 8 of 15 | +13.03% (2025) | −18.53% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.80% | +2.70% | 9 of 14 | +24.86% (2016) | −19.98% (2015) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +2.40% | +2.55% | 11 of 15 | +12.27% (2021) | −11.46% (2016) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
Palladium in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +4.77% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −10.92% |
| November 2023 | −10.39% |
| November 2022 | +0.73% |
| November 2021 | −14.00% |
| November 2020 | +7.92% |
| November 2019 | +3.42% |
| November 2018 | +9.37% |
| November 2017 | +2.80% |
| November 2016 | +24.86% |
| November 2015 | −19.98% |
| November 2014 | +2.60% |
| November 2013 | −2.55% |
| November 2012 | +12.54% |
Questions
Is November bullish for palladium?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), palladium rose in November 9 times, with an average move of +0.80% and a median of +2.70%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −19.98% (2015) to +24.86% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for palladium?
Its best month on average is July (+3.78%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is May (−3.70%, up in 5 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end.
What happens to palladium in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +2.40% on average (median +2.55%).
How reliable is palladium seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the palladium seasonal pattern diverging across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on palladium: Palladium outlook · Palladium COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Gold in Nov −0.96% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the Palladium path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.