Seasonality · S&P 500 · 12 November 2026
S&P 500 seasonality: is November bullish for the S&P 500?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the S&P 500 rose in November 13 times, with an average move of +3.56% and a median of +3.01%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, −0.18% on average (median +0.41%).
Its best month on average is November (+3.56%, up in 13 of 14) and its worst is September (−1.13%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.30% | +1.59% | 9 of 15 | +8.01% (2019) | −5.27% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.78% | +1.28% | 8 of 15 | +5.62% (2015) | −7.92% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.10% | +1.36% | 9 of 15 | +6.18% (2016) | −13.00% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.69% | +0.98% | 11 of 15 | +12.70% (2020) | −8.78% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +1.46% | +1.70% | 13 of 15 | +6.28% (2025) | −6.38% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.98% | +1.33% | 10 of 15 | +6.44% (2019) | −8.64% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +2.84% | +2.30% | 14 of 15 | +9.21% (2022) | −1.34% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.71% | +2.05% | 10 of 15 | +6.98% (2020) | −6.09% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −1.13% | −0.50% | 7 of 15 | +3.28% (2025) | −9.62% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.38% | +2.21% | 8 of 15 | +8.51% (2015) | −6.91% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +3.56% | +3.01% | 13 of 14 | +10.88% (2020) | −0.80% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.18% | +0.41% | 9 of 15 | +4.26% (2021) | −9.33% (2018) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the daily close of a fund that tracks the index, dividends included, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
S&P 500 in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.20% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +5.96% |
| November 2023 | +9.13% |
| November 2022 | +5.56% |
| November 2021 | −0.80% |
| November 2020 | +10.88% |
| November 2019 | +3.62% |
| November 2018 | +1.85% |
| November 2017 | +3.06% |
| November 2016 | +3.68% |
| November 2015 | +0.37% |
| November 2014 | +2.75% |
| November 2013 | +2.96% |
| November 2012 | +0.57% |
Questions
Is November bullish for the S&P 500?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the S&P 500 rose in November 13 times, with an average move of +3.56% and a median of +3.01%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −0.80% (2021) to +10.88% (2020). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for the S&P 500?
Its best month on average is November (+3.56%, up in 13 of 14) and its worst is September (−1.13%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the daily close of a fund that tracks the index, dividends included, month-end to month-end.
What happens to the S&P 500 in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, −0.18% on average (median +0.41%).
How reliable is S&P 500 seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the S&P 500 seasonal pattern stable across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on the S&P 500: S&P 500 outlook · S&P 500 COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Gold in Nov −0.96% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the S&P 500 path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.