Seasonality · US Dollar · 12 November 2026
US Dollar seasonality: is November bullish for the US dollar index?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the US dollar index rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +0.16% and a median of +0.45%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 5 of 15 years, −0.22% on average (median −0.35%).
Its best month on average is May (+0.72%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is April (−0.28%, up in 4 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.18% | −0.31% | 7 of 15 | +3.23% (2015) | −3.01% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.35% | +0.01% | 8 of 15 | +1.98% (2023) | −1.15% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.15% | −0.00% | 7 of 15 | +4.14% (2020) | −3.78% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.28% | −0.17% | 4 of 15 | +3.71% (2022) | −3.25% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.72% | +0.17% | 8 of 15 | +4.78% (2012) | −1.30% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.01% | −0.24% | 6 of 15 | +2.45% (2022) | −1.94% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.13% | −0.26% | 6 of 15 | +2.12% (2015) | −2.70% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.37% | +0.39% | 9 of 15 | +2.31% (2019) | −1.24% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.58% | +0.66% | 8 of 15 | +3.22% (2022) | −1.94% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.55% | +0.58% | 10 of 15 | +2.90% (2024) | −1.72% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.16% | +0.45% | 7 of 14 | +3.28% (2016) | −3.22% (2022) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.22% | −0.35% | 5 of 15 | +2.21% (2014) | −2.09% (2019) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's broad trade-weighted dollar index, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
US Dollar in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −0.27% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +1.43% |
| November 2023 | −2.90% |
| November 2022 | −3.22% |
| November 2021 | +1.82% |
| November 2020 | −2.51% |
| November 2019 | +1.04% |
| November 2018 | −0.10% |
| November 2017 | −1.20% |
| November 2016 | +3.28% |
| November 2015 | +1.94% |
| November 2014 | +1.99% |
| November 2013 | +0.97% |
| November 2012 | −0.06% |
Questions
Is November bullish for the US dollar index?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the US dollar index rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +0.16% and a median of +0.45%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −3.22% (2022) to +3.28% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for the US dollar index?
Its best month on average is May (+0.72%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is April (−0.28%, up in 4 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's broad trade-weighted dollar index, month-end to month-end.
What happens to the US dollar index in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 5 of 15 years, −0.22% on average (median −0.35%).
How reliable is US Dollar seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the US Dollar seasonal pattern stable across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on the US dollar index: US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises
Other seasonality: Gold in Nov −0.96% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the US Dollar path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.