Economic surprises · USD · 12 November 2026
US economic surprise index: is US data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's US economic surprise index reads +77.5 (strongly beating): recent US data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +11.1 on the week and +61.7 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 99% of the last 90 days.
The next US release to watch is Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Nov/07), on Thu 12 Nov, 13:30 UTC, with a forecast of 192.5K against 194.75K last time.
The last 10 US data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API Crude Oil Stock Change (Nov/06) | Tue 10 Nov, 21:30 UTC | 9M | -1M | -5.267M | above forecast |
| Core Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | above forecast |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | above forecast |
| CPI s.a (Oct) | Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 337.48 | 337 | 336.3 | above forecast |
| CPI (Oct) | Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 337.51Index | 337.02Index | 336.94Index | above forecast |
| Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | Mon 9 Nov, 18:00 UTC | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | above forecast |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) | Fri 6 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 51 | 48 | 48 | above forecast |
| Unemployment Rate (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | below forecast |
| Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 165K | 65K | 60K | above forecast |
| Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | above forecast |
Medium and high importance US releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is US data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's US economic surprise index reads +77.5 (strongly beating): recent US data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +11.1 on the week and +61.7 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 99% of the last 90 days.
What was the last US data surprise?
The latest, API Crude Oil Stock Change (Nov/06) on 10 November, came in at 9M against a forecast of -1M, above forecast.
What is the next US release to watch?
The next US release to watch is Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Nov/07), on Thu 12 Nov, 13:30 UTC, with a forecast of 192.5K against 194.75K last time.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the US dollar: US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations
Other currencies: EUR −3.5 · GBP +23.3 · JPY +11.3 · CHF +32.4 · AUD −15.5 · CAD −88.3 · NZD −20.7 · MXN +10.4 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.