Economic surprises · JPY · 12 November 2026
Japanese economic surprise index: is Japanese data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Japanese economic surprise index reads +11.3 (beating): recent Japanese data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +6.6 on the week and +19.4 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 79% of the last 90 days.
The next Japanese release to watch is Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Q3), on Sun 15 Nov, 23:50 UTC, with a forecast of 0.1% against 0.4% last time.
The last 10 Japanese data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account (Sep) | Mon 9 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 2372B | 3354.4B | 3993B | below forecast |
| Household Spending MoM (Sep) | Mon 9 Nov, 23:30 UTC | -2.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | below forecast |
| Household Spending YoY (Sep) | Mon 9 Nov, 23:30 UTC | -6.8% | -3.1% | -3.1% | below forecast |
| Housing Starts YoY (Sep) | Fri 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | -2.7% | 2.9% | 6.1% | below forecast |
| BoJ Interest Rate Decision | Fri 30 Oct, 03:00 UTC | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.25% | in line |
| Retail Sales YoY (Sep) | Thu 29 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | below forecast |
| Industrial Production MoM (Sep) | Thu 29 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 2.2% | 1.3% | -2.4% | above forecast |
| Unemployment Rate (Sep) | Thu 29 Oct, 23:30 UTC | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | below forecast |
| Consumer Confidence (Oct) | Thu 29 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 35% | 35.1% | 35.4% | below forecast |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | Thu 22 Oct, 23:30 UTC | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | in line |
Medium and high importance Japanese releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is Japanese data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Japanese economic surprise index reads +11.3 (beating): recent Japanese data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +6.6 on the week and +19.4 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 79% of the last 90 days.
What was the last Japanese data surprise?
The latest, Current Account (Sep) on 9 November, came in at 2372B against a forecast of 3354.4B, below forecast.
What is the next Japanese release to watch?
The next Japanese release to watch is Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Q3), on Sun 15 Nov, 23:50 UTC, with a forecast of 0.1% against 0.4% last time.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the yen: Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations
Other currencies: USD +77.5 · EUR −3.5 · GBP +23.3 · CHF +32.4 · AUD −15.5 · CAD −88.3 · NZD −20.7 · MXN +10.4 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.