Economic surprises · CHF · 12 November 2026
Swiss economic surprise index: is Swiss data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Swiss economic surprise index reads +32.4 (strongly beating): recent Swiss data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +1.0 on the week and +23.7 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 50% of the last 90 days.
The next Swiss release to watch is Retail Sales MoM (Oct), on Fri 27 Nov, 07:30 UTC.
The last 10 Swiss data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SECO Consumer Climate (Q4) | Fri 6 Nov, 08:00 UTC | -43 | -35 | -33 | below forecast |
| Consumer Confidence (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 08:00 UTC | -45% | -35% | -36% | below forecast |
| Unemployment Rate (Oct) | Thu 5 Nov, 08:00 UTC | 3% | 3.1% | 3% | below forecast |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | Tue 3 Nov, 07:30 UTC | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1% | above forecast |
| procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | Mon 2 Nov, 08:30 UTC | 56.7 | 55.3 | 55.3 | above forecast |
| Retail Sales MoM (Sep) | Mon 2 Nov, 07:30 UTC | -0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | below forecast |
| Retail Sales YoY (Sep) | Mon 2 Nov, 07:30 UTC | 1.6% | 3% | 3.9% | below forecast |
| KOF Leading Indicators (Oct) | Fri 30 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 107.6 | 108.3 | 109.1 | below forecast |
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | Tue 20 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 1.4B | 4.3B | 5.4B | below forecast |
| Consumer Confidence (Sep) | Fri 9 Oct, 07:00 UTC | -36% | -31% | -33% | below forecast |
Medium and high importance Swiss releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is Swiss data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Swiss economic surprise index reads +32.4 (strongly beating): recent Swiss data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +1.0 on the week and +23.7 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 50% of the last 90 days.
What was the last Swiss data surprise?
The latest, SECO Consumer Climate (Q4) on 6 November, came in at -43 against a forecast of -35, below forecast.
What is the next Swiss release to watch?
The next Swiss release to watch is Retail Sales MoM (Oct), on Fri 27 Nov, 07:30 UTC.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the Swiss franc: Swiss Franc outlook · Swiss Franc COT positioning · SNB rate expectations
Other currencies: USD +77.5 · EUR −3.5 · GBP +23.3 · JPY +11.3 · AUD −15.5 · CAD −88.3 · NZD −20.7 · MXN +10.4 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.