Economic surprises · EUR · 12 November 2026
Eurozone economic surprise index: is eurozone data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's eurozone economic surprise index reads −3.5 (mixed): recent eurozone data has been coming in close to expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is −2.9 on the week and −5.8 over a month, negative and deteriorating, and higher than on 2% of the last 90 days.
The next eurozone release to watch is Employment Change QoQ (Q3), on Fri 13 Nov, 10:00 UTC, with a forecast of 0.2% against 0.1% last time.
The last 10 eurozone data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production MoM (Sep) | Wed 11 Nov, 09:00 UTC | 1.2% | 0.7% | -1.2% | above forecast |
| Unemployment Rate (Q3) | Tue 10 Nov, 06:30 UTC | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | below forecast |
| Exports MoM (Sep) | Mon 9 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 2% | 0.5% | -0.4% | above forecast |
| Retail Sales MoM (Sep) | Fri 6 Nov, 10:00 UTC | -0.7% | -0.1% | 0.4% | below forecast |
| Retail Sales YoY (Sep) | Fri 6 Nov, 10:00 UTC | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | below forecast |
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | Fri 6 Nov, 07:45 UTC | -7.3B | -5.8B | -6B | below forecast |
| Industrial Production MoM (Sep) | Fri 6 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 0.7% | 0% | 1% | above forecast |
| Retail Sales MoM (Sep) | Thu 5 Nov, 09:00 UTC | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | below forecast |
| Retail Sales YoY (Sep) | Thu 5 Nov, 09:00 UTC | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | above forecast |
| Industrial Production MoM (Sep) | Thu 5 Nov, 07:45 UTC | -0.5% | 0.3% | -0.4% | below forecast |
Medium and high importance eurozone releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is eurozone data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's eurozone economic surprise index reads −3.5 (mixed): recent eurozone data has been coming in close to expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is −2.9 on the week and −5.8 over a month, negative and deteriorating, and higher than on 2% of the last 90 days.
What was the last eurozone data surprise?
The latest, Industrial Production MoM (Sep) on 11 November, came in at 1.2% against a forecast of 0.7%, above forecast.
What is the next eurozone release to watch?
The next eurozone release to watch is Employment Change QoQ (Q3), on Fri 13 Nov, 10:00 UTC, with a forecast of 0.2% against 0.1% last time.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the euro: Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations
Other currencies: USD +77.5 · GBP +23.3 · JPY +11.3 · CHF +32.4 · AUD −15.5 · CAD −88.3 · NZD −20.7 · MXN +10.4 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.