Economic surprises · MXN · 12 November 2026
Mexican economic surprise index: is Mexican data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Mexican economic surprise index reads +10.4 (beating): recent Mexican data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is.
The next Mexican release to watch is Balance of Trade (Oct), on Fri 27 Nov, 12:00 UTC against -0.606B last time.
The last 10 Mexican data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | Mon 9 Nov, 12:00 UTC | 0.65% | 0.55% | 0.42% | above forecast |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | Mon 9 Nov, 12:00 UTC | 3.75% | 3.65% | 3.45% | above forecast |
| Interest Rate Decision (Nov) | Thu 5 Nov, 19:00 UTC | 6.25% | 6.5% | 6.5% | below forecast |
| Consumer Confidence (Oct) | Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 UTC | 45% | 45% | 45.1% | in line |
| Business Confidence (Oct) | Tue 3 Nov, 12:00 UTC | 48.4% | 48.2% | 48.1% | above forecast |
| GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) | Fri 30 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | above forecast |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) | Fri 30 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | above forecast |
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | Tue 27 Oct, 12:00 UTC | -0.606B | -0.4B | 0.605B | below forecast |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Sep) | Thu 8 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 0.42% | 0.43% | 0.2% | below forecast |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | Thu 8 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 3.45% | 3.47% | 3.26% | below forecast |
Medium and high importance Mexican releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is Mexican data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Mexican economic surprise index reads +10.4 (beating): recent Mexican data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is.
What was the last Mexican data surprise?
The latest, Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) on 9 November, came in at 0.65% against a forecast of 0.55%, above forecast.
What is the next Mexican release to watch?
The next Mexican release to watch is Balance of Trade (Oct), on Fri 27 Nov, 12:00 UTC against -0.606B last time.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the Mexican peso: Mexican Peso outlook · Mexican Peso COT positioning
Other currencies: USD +77.5 · EUR −3.5 · GBP +23.3 · JPY +11.3 · CHF +32.4 · AUD −15.5 · CAD −88.3 · NZD −20.7 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.