Economic surprises · NZD · 12 November 2026
New Zealand economic surprise index: is New Zealand data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's New Zealand economic surprise index reads −20.7 (missing): recent New Zealand data has been missing expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +5.5 on the week and +3.8 over a month, negative but improving, and higher than on 13% of the last 90 days.
The next New Zealand release to watch is Retail Sales YoY (Q3), on Sun 22 Nov, 21:45 UTC, with a forecast of 1.6% against 3.3% last time.
The last 10 New Zealand data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate (Q3) | Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 UTC | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | above forecast |
| Employment Change QoQ (Q3) | Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 UTC | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | below forecast |
| ANZ Business Confidence (Oct) | Thu 29 Oct, 00:00 UTC | 52.5 | 51.5 | 51.9 | above forecast |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 UTC | 2.75% | 3% | 2.75% | below forecast |
| Consumer Price Index (Q3) | Wed 21 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | below forecast |
| Inflation Rate QoQ (Q3) | Wed 21 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | below forecast |
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | Sun 18 Oct, 21:45 UTC | -1.971B | -0.775B | -1.536B | below forecast |
| Business NZ PMI (Sep) | Thu 15 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 56.5 | 54 | 53.3 | above forecast |
| ANZ Business Confidence (Sep) | Wed 30 Sept, 00:00 UTC | 51.9 | 55.1 | 53.7 | below forecast |
| Balance of Trade (Aug) | Thu 17 Sept, 22:45 UTC | -1.349B | -1.775B | -2.118B | above forecast |
Medium and high importance New Zealand releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is New Zealand data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's New Zealand economic surprise index reads −20.7 (missing): recent New Zealand data has been missing expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +5.5 on the week and +3.8 over a month, negative but improving, and higher than on 13% of the last 90 days.
What was the last New Zealand data surprise?
The latest, Unemployment Rate (Q3) on 3 November, came in at 5.7% against a forecast of 5.5%, above forecast.
What is the next New Zealand release to watch?
The next New Zealand release to watch is Retail Sales YoY (Q3), on Sun 22 Nov, 21:45 UTC, with a forecast of 1.6% against 3.3% last time.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the New Zealand dollar: New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations
Other currencies: USD +77.5 · EUR −3.5 · GBP +23.3 · JPY +11.3 · CHF +32.4 · AUD −15.5 · CAD −88.3 · MXN +10.4 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.