Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate expectations · priced as of 12 November 2026 · free data
Will the RBNZ cut or hike at its next meeting?
The market has a 25bp hike fully priced (100%) at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's next meeting on 9 December 2026.
Reading of 12 Nov, 07:12 London
RBNZ watch: Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate probabilities, meeting by meeting
What is priced at the next decision, and the split at every meeting for the next twelve months.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model
| Meeting | Implied rate | vs now | Cut | Hold | Hike | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Dec 26 | 3.07% | +32bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
| 10 Feb 27 | 3.24% | +49bp | · | 33.0% | 67.0% | Hike 67.0% |
| 17 Mar 27 | 3.33% | +58bp | · | 63.0% | 37.0% | Hold 63.0% |
| 5 May 27 | 3.43% | +68bp | · | 60.7% | 39.3% | Hold 60.7% |
| 16 Jun 27 | 3.53% | +78bp | · | 58.8% | 41.2% | Hold 58.8% |
| 4 Aug 27 | 3.60% | +85bp | · | 71.8% | 28.2% | Hold 71.8% |
| 15 Sept 27 | 3.64% | +89bp | · | 83.0% | 17.0% | Hold 83.0% |
| 27 Oct 27 | 3.69% | +94bp | · | 81.0% | 19.0% | Hold 81.0% |
Implied rate is where the market prices the policy rate after each meeting, for the next twelve months. The split is for that meeting alone, from the step priced since the meeting before, in 25bp moves. Derived from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model.
Preview of the 9 December 2026 meeting · Every 2027 meeting date · The 2027 rate outlook
What it is built from
Where this number comes from, and what it cannot tell you.
New Zealand prices off 90-day bank bill futures, which carry a credit spread over the policy rate. That spread has to be measured and removed before any probability is calculated, and the measurement is an assumption rather than an observation. On a 25bp step, a 5bp error in the spread is worth roughly 20 points of implied probability, so readings here are marked indicative rather than precise.
A market-implied probability is not a forecast. It is the step the market has priced between one meeting and the next, divided by the size of a policy step. It says what has been paid for, not what will happen, and it moves whenever the curve does.
RBNZ rate expectations, answered.
When is the next RBNZ meeting?
Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on 9 December 2026. That is 27 days away.
What is RBNZ expected to do at the next meeting?
The market has a 25bp hike fully priced (100%) at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's next meeting on 9 December 2026. This is read from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model, and it is what the market expects rather than a forecast of our own.
What is the current RBNZ Official Cash Rate?
2.75%, as of 12 November 2026.
What is this figure derived from?
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model New Zealand prices off 90-day bank bill futures, which carry a credit spread over the policy rate. That spread has to be measured and removed before any probability is calculated, and the measurement is an assumption rather than an observation. On a 25bp step, a 5bp error in the spread is worth roughly 20 points of implied probability, so readings here are marked indicative rather than precise.
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