Bank of Canada rate expectations · priced as of 12 November 2026 · free data
Will the Bank of Canada cut or hike at its next meeting?
The market has a hold fully priced (88.4%) at the Bank of Canada's next meeting on 9 December 2026.
Reading of 12 Nov, 07:12 London
BoC watch: Bank of Canada rate probabilities, meeting by meeting
What is priced at the next decision, and the split at every meeting for the next twelve months.
Bank of Canada
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model
| Meeting | Implied rate | vs now | Cut | Hold | Hike | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Dec 26 | 2.47% | -3bp | 11.6% | 88.4% | · | Hold 88.4% |
| 27 Jan 27 | 2.81% | +31bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
| 3 Mar 27 | 2.88% | +38bp | · | 72.2% | 27.8% | Hold 72.2% |
| 28 Apr 27 | 2.91% | +41bp | · | 90.4% | 9.6% | Hold 90.4% |
| 2 Jun 27 | 2.98% | +48bp | · | 69.2% | 30.8% | Hold 69.2% |
| 21 Jul 27 | 3.06% | +56bp | · | 67.1% | 32.9% | Hold 67.1% |
| 8 Sept 27 | 3.13% | +63bp | · | 75.9% | 24.1% | Hold 75.9% |
| 27 Oct 27 | 3.16% | +66bp | · | 87.7% | 12.3% | Hold 87.7% |
Implied rate is where the market prices the policy rate after each meeting, for the next twelve months. The split is for that meeting alone, from the step priced since the meeting before, in 25bp moves. Derived from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model.
Preview of the 9 December 2026 meeting · Every 2027 meeting date · The 2027 rate outlook
What it is built from
Where this number comes from, and what it cannot tell you.
Canadian futures are liquid enough for a clean read on the next meeting but thin further out, so the first meeting is worth more than the rest of the curve.
A market-implied probability is not a forecast. It is the step the market has priced between one meeting and the next, divided by the size of a policy step. It says what has been paid for, not what will happen, and it moves whenever the curve does.
BOC rate expectations, answered.
When is the next BOC meeting?
Bank of Canada meets next on 9 December 2026. That is 27 days away.
What is BOC expected to do at the next meeting?
The market has a hold fully priced (88.4%) at the Bank of Canada's next meeting on 9 December 2026. This is read from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model, and it is what the market expects rather than a forecast of our own.
What is the current BOC overnight rate target?
2.50%, as of 12 November 2026.
What is this figure derived from?
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model Canadian futures are liquid enough for a clean read on the next meeting but thin further out, so the first meeting is worth more than the rest of the curve.
The other banks