Reserve Bank of Australia rate expectations · priced as of 12 November 2026 · free data
Will the RBA cut or hike at its next meeting?
The market has a hold fully priced (100%) at the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting on 8 December 2026.
Reading of 12 Nov, 07:12 London
RBA watch: Reserve Bank of Australia rate probabilities, meeting by meeting
What is priced at the next decision, and the split at every meeting for the next twelve months.
Reserve Bank of Australia
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model
| Meeting | Implied rate | vs now | Cut | Hold | Hike | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Dec 26 | 4.85% | 0bp | · | 100% | · | Hold 100% |
| 9 Feb 27 | 4.90% | +5bp | · | 78.4% | 21.6% | Hold 78.4% |
| 23 Mar 27 | 4.90% | +5bp | · | 100% | · | Hold 100% |
| 4 May 27 | 4.88% | +3bp | 9.6% | 90.4% | · | Hold 90.4% |
| 22 Jun 27 | 4.83% | -2bp | 18.8% | 81.2% | · | Hold 81.2% |
| 10 Aug 27 | 4.76% | -9bp | 30.8% | 69.2% | · | Hold 69.2% |
| 28 Sept 27 | 4.73% | -12bp | 9.3% | 90.7% | · | Hold 90.7% |
| 2 Nov 27 | 4.68% | -17bp | 22.3% | 77.7% | · | Hold 77.7% |
Implied rate is where the market prices the policy rate after each meeting, for the next twelve months. The split is for that meeting alone, from the step priced since the meeting before, in 25bp moves. Derived from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model.
Preview of the 8 December 2026 meeting · Every 2027 meeting date · The 2027 rate outlook · The 3 November 2026 decision
What it is built from
Where this number comes from, and what it cannot tell you.
ASX 30-day cash rate futures settle on the monthly average cash rate, so a contract spanning a meeting prices a blend of before and after. That is arithmetic rather than uncertainty, and it has to be unwound before a probability means anything.
A market-implied probability is not a forecast. It is the step the market has priced between one meeting and the next, divided by the size of a policy step. It says what has been paid for, not what will happen, and it moves whenever the curve does.
RBA rate expectations, answered.
When is the next RBA meeting?
Reserve Bank of Australia meets next on 8 December 2026. That is 26 days away.
What is RBA expected to do at the next meeting?
The market has a hold fully priced (100%) at the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting on 8 December 2026. This is read from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model, and it is what the market expects rather than a forecast of our own.
What is the current RBA cash rate?
4.85%, as of 12 November 2026.
What is this figure derived from?
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model ASX 30-day cash rate futures settle on the monthly average cash rate, so a contract spanning a meeting prices a blend of before and after. That is arithmetic rather than uncertainty, and it has to be unwound before a probability means anything.
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