European Central Bank rate expectations · priced as of 12 November 2026 · free data
Will the ECB cut or hike at its next meeting?
The market has a 25bp hike firmly priced (84.3%) at the European Central Bank's next meeting on 17 December 2026.
Reading of 12 Nov, 07:12 London
ECB watch: European Central Bank rate probabilities, meeting by meeting
What is priced at the next decision, and the split at every meeting for the next twelve months.
European Central Bank
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model
| Meeting | Implied rate | vs now | Cut | Hold | Hike | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec 26 | 2.71% | +21bp | · | 15.7% | 84.3% | Hike 84.3% |
| 4 Feb 27 | 2.81% | +31bp | · | 59.2% | 40.8% | Hold 59.2% |
| 18 Mar 27 | 2.90% | +40bp | · | 66.7% | 33.3% | Hold 66.7% |
| 29 Apr 27 | 3.00% | +50bp | · | 57.2% | 42.8% | Hold 57.2% |
| 10 Jun 27 | 3.09% | +59bp | · | 64.4% | 35.6% | Hold 64.4% |
| 22 Jul 27 | 3.09% | +59bp | · | 100% | · | Hold 100% |
| 9 Sept 27 | 3.14% | +64bp | · | 79.1% | 20.9% | Hold 79.1% |
| 28 Oct 27 | 3.17% | +67bp | · | 89.4% | 10.6% | Hold 89.4% |
Implied rate is where the market prices the policy rate after each meeting, for the next twelve months. The split is for that meeting alone, from the step priced since the meeting before, in 25bp moves. Derived from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model.
Preview of the 17 December 2026 meeting · Every 2027 meeting date · The 2027 rate outlook
What it is built from
Where this number comes from, and what it cannot tell you.
The ECB sets three rates and the market prices off the deposit facility rate, not the main refinancing rate. Data feeds frequently report the refinancing rate instead, which is 15bp higher and produces a reading that disagrees with the curve. Every figure here is anchored to the deposit rate.
A market-implied probability is not a forecast. It is the step the market has priced between one meeting and the next, divided by the size of a policy step. It says what has been paid for, not what will happen, and it moves whenever the curve does.
ECB rate expectations, answered.
When is the next ECB meeting?
European Central Bank meets next on 17 December 2026. That is 35 days away.
What is ECB expected to do at the next meeting?
The market has a 25bp hike firmly priced (84.3%) at the European Central Bank's next meeting on 17 December 2026. This is read from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model, and it is what the market expects rather than a forecast of our own.
What is the current ECB deposit facility rate?
2.50%, as of 12 November 2026.
What is this figure derived from?
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model The ECB sets three rates and the market prices off the deposit facility rate, not the main refinancing rate. Data feeds frequently report the refinancing rate instead, which is 15bp higher and produces a reading that disagrees with the curve. Every figure here is anchored to the deposit rate.
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