European Central Bank · meeting preview · 17 Dec 2026
Will the ECB cut or hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price an 84% chance that the ECB raises rates at its 17 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 2.71% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). The policy rate is 2.50% going in.
Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 60%, so the pricing has firmed by 24 points.
What is priced for 17 December
| Reading | Hike | Hold | Cut | Implied rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now12 Nov | 84% | 16% | 0% | 2.71% |
| Two weeks before29 Oct | 60% | 40% | 0% | 2.68% |
| Four weeks before15 Oct | 83% | 17% | 0% | 2.74% |
Read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) on WatchTower Terminal. The history starts with our daily snapshots; a row is missing where no market-built snapshot exists for that day.
And after December
- 4 Feb 202759% hold2.81%
- 18 Mar 202767% hold2.90%
- 29 Apr 202757% hold3.00%
Questions
Will the ECB hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price an 84% chance that the ECB raises rates at its 17 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 2.71% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 60%, so the pricing has firmed by 24 points.
When is the ECB's December 2026 meeting?
The ECB's monetary policy meeting is on Thursday, 17 December 2026, per its own published calendar.
What are the odds for the ECB's December meeting?
As of 12 November 2026: hike 84%, hold 16%, cut 0%. The three are read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
What is priced after December?
4 Feb 2027: 59% hold, 2.81% implied; 18 Mar 2027: 67% hold, 2.90% implied; 29 Apr 2027: 57% hold, 3.00% implied.
- What is priced for the ECB, every meeting
- Every central bank meeting date in 2027
- The 2027 interest rate outlook
- EUR macro outlook
- EUR COT positioning
Other meetings coming up: Reserve Bank of Australia, 8 Dec · Federal Reserve, 9 Dec · Bank of Canada, 9 Dec · Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 9 Dec · Swiss National Bank, 10 Dec · Bank of England, 17 Dec · Bank of Japan, 18 Dec
In WatchTower Terminal the Central bank panel moves with the pricing through the day; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Nothing here is financial advice.