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Federal Reserve · meeting preview · 9 Dec 2026

Will the Fed cut or hike in December 2026?

As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 100% chance that the Fed raises rates at its 9 December 2026 meeting (93% for a 25 bp hike), with the policy rate implied at 4.27% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures. The policy rate is 4.00% going in.

Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 87%, so the pricing has firmed by 13 points.

What is priced for 9 December

ReadingHikeHoldCutImplied rate after
Now12 Nov 100%0%0%4.27%
Two weeks before29 Oct 87%13%0%4.22%
Four weeks before15 Oct 90%11%0%4.29%

Read from exchange-traded futures on WatchTower Terminal. The history starts with our daily snapshots; a row is missing where no market-built snapshot exists for that day.

And after December

  • 26 Jan 2027100% hike4.45%
  • 16 Mar 2027100% hike4.57%
  • 27 Apr 2027100% hike4.66%

Questions

Will the Fed hike in December 2026?

As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 100% chance that the Fed raises rates at its 9 December 2026 meeting (93% for a 25 bp hike), with the policy rate implied at 4.27% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures. Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 87%, so the pricing has firmed by 13 points.

When is the Fed's December 2026 meeting?

The Fed's fomc decision is on Wednesday, 9 December 2026, per its own published calendar.

What are the odds for the Fed's December meeting?

As of 12 November 2026: hike 100%, hold 0%, cut 0%. The three are read from exchange-traded futures.

What is priced after December?

26 Jan 2027: 100% hike, 4.45% implied; 16 Mar 2027: 100% hike, 4.57% implied; 27 Apr 2027: 100% hike, 4.66% implied.

Other meetings coming up: Reserve Bank of Australia, 8 Dec · Bank of Canada, 9 Dec · Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 9 Dec · Swiss National Bank, 10 Dec · European Central Bank, 17 Dec · Bank of England, 17 Dec · Bank of Japan, 18 Dec

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In WatchTower Terminal the Central bank panel moves with the pricing through the day; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Nothing here is financial advice.