Reserve Bank of New Zealand · meeting preview · 9 Dec 2026
Will the RBNZ cut or hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 100% chance that the RBNZ raises rates at its 9 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 3.07% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). The policy rate is 2.75% going in.
Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 100%, so the pricing has held by 0 points.
What is priced for 9 December
| Reading | Hike | Hold | Cut | Implied rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now12 Nov | 100% | 0% | 0% | 3.07% |
| Two weeks before29 Oct | 100% | 0% | 0% | 3.28% |
| Four weeks before15 Oct | 93% | 7% | 0% | 3.22% |
Read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) on WatchTower Terminal. The history starts with our daily snapshots; a row is missing where no market-built snapshot exists for that day.
And after December
- 10 Feb 202767% hike3.24%
- 17 Mar 202763% hold3.33%
- 5 May 202761% hold3.43%
Questions
Will the RBNZ hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 100% chance that the RBNZ raises rates at its 9 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 3.07% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 100%, so the pricing has held by 0 points.
When is the RBNZ's December 2026 meeting?
The RBNZ's ocr decision is on Wednesday, 9 December 2026, per its own published calendar. It comes with the Monetary Policy Statement.
What are the odds for the RBNZ's December meeting?
As of 12 November 2026: hike 100%, hold 0%, cut 0%. The three are read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
What is priced after December?
10 Feb 2027: 67% hike, 3.24% implied; 17 Mar 2027: 63% hold, 3.33% implied; 5 May 2027: 61% hold, 3.43% implied.
- What is priced for the RBNZ, every meeting
- Every central bank meeting date in 2027
- The 2027 interest rate outlook
- NZD macro outlook
- NZD COT positioning
Other meetings coming up: Reserve Bank of Australia, 8 Dec · Federal Reserve, 9 Dec · Bank of Canada, 9 Dec · Swiss National Bank, 10 Dec · European Central Bank, 17 Dec · Bank of England, 17 Dec · Bank of Japan, 18 Dec
In WatchTower Terminal the Central bank panel moves with the pricing through the day; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Nothing here is financial advice.