Bank of Canada · meeting preview · 9 Dec 2026
Will the Bank of Canada cut or hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price an 88% chance that the Bank of Canada holds at its 9 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 2.47% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). The policy rate is 2.50% going in.
Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 67%, so the pricing has firmed by 21 points.
What is priced for 9 December
| Reading | Hike | Hold | Cut | Implied rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now12 Nov | 0% | 88% | 12% | 2.47% |
| Two weeks before29 Oct | 0% | 67% | 33% | 2.42% |
| Four weeks before15 Oct | 64% | 36% | 0% | 2.45% |
Read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) on WatchTower Terminal. The history starts with our daily snapshots; a row is missing where no market-built snapshot exists for that day.
And after December
- 27 Jan 2027100% hike2.81%
- 3 Mar 202772% hold2.88%
- 28 Apr 202790% hold2.91%
Questions
Will the Bank of Canada change rates in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price an 88% chance that the Bank of Canada holds at its 9 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 2.47% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 67%, so the pricing has firmed by 21 points.
When is the Bank of Canada's December 2026 meeting?
The Bank of Canada's policy rate announcement is on Wednesday, 9 December 2026, per its own published calendar.
What are the odds for the Bank of Canada's December meeting?
As of 12 November 2026: hike 0%, hold 88%, cut 12%. The three are read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
What is priced after December?
27 Jan 2027: 100% hike, 2.81% implied; 3 Mar 2027: 72% hold, 2.88% implied; 28 Apr 2027: 90% hold, 2.91% implied.
- What is priced for the Bank of Canada, every meeting
- Every central bank meeting date in 2027
- The 2027 interest rate outlook
- CAD macro outlook
- CAD COT positioning
Other meetings coming up: Reserve Bank of Australia, 8 Dec · Federal Reserve, 9 Dec · Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 9 Dec · Swiss National Bank, 10 Dec · European Central Bank, 17 Dec · Bank of England, 17 Dec · Bank of Japan, 18 Dec
In WatchTower Terminal the Central bank panel moves with the pricing through the day; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Nothing here is financial advice.