XAU/USD analysis · updated 12 November 2026 · free data
Is XAU/USD bullish or bearish?
As of 12 November 2026, gold (XAU) scores 36 and USD 58 out of 100 on the WatchTower Terminal macro composite, a 22 point gap in favour of USD. That is wider than the model's 11 point neutral band, so the composites lean XAU/USD lower.
USD is scoring 22 points above XAU, which is wider than the model's neutral band, so XAU/USD carries a lean lower on the composites. What matters as much as the gap is which side is producing it, and the two scores below say which this is.
Reading of 12 Nov, 09:30 London
The two composites that produce XAUUSD
56 and above reads bullish, below 45 bearish. The shaded band is neutral.
Base
XAUGold
36Bearish
- Positioning
- Net long
Quote
USDUS Dollar
58Bullish
- Central bank
- Federal Reserve, reading tightening, policy rate 4.00%
- Positioning
- Net long
The gap is 22 points in favour of USD. That is wider than the model's own neutral band of 11, which is what makes it worth a second look.
Being straight about it
What this page is and is not.
A composite is a weighted read of published inputs, not a forecast. It says what the data, the central bank, the desks and the positioning currently add up to for each currency, and the pair figure is the distance between two of those. It does not know what the market intends to trade this month, which is a separate question the terminal answers in Data surprises, with its read on whether price is following the data. Rate spread adds the gap between the two central banks' priced rates and how much of the pair's recent move it explains.
Gold is scored on its own model, not the currency one, and its central bank input is the developed-market policy stance, inverted. Part of the dollar's story is therefore inside both numbers, and a wide gap here partly counts the Fed twice.
The scores here refresh from the terminal's public feed while the page is open, and every weight and driver behind them is visible inside the terminal rather than described. Nothing on this page is financial advice.
Also free for XAUUSD: Gold retail sentiment · Gold seasonality · US economic surprises.
Each side on its own
Sharing a leg
Other pairs sharing the dollar leg.
XAUUSD, answered.
Is XAU/USD bullish or bearish right now?
As of 12 November 2026, gold (XAU) scores 36 and USD 58 out of 100 on the WatchTower Terminal macro composite, a 22 point gap in favour of USD. That is wider than the model's 11 point neutral band, so the composites lean XAU/USD lower.
How is XAUUSD analysed here?
From both sides rather than from the pair. Gold is scored on the monetary metal weights (central bank 30%, cot level 25%, bank research 20%, cot flow 15%, seasonality 10%), and the dollar on the currency weights (fundamentals 22.5%, central bank 18%, bank research 18%, seasonality 13.5%, retail sentiment 10%, cot level 9%, cot flow 9%). The pair reading is the distance between the two. Part of the dollar's story sits in both numbers, because gold's central bank input is the developed-market policy stance, inverted, so a wide gap here partly double-counts the Fed.
What does the XAUUSD score mean?
Each side scores 0 to 100. 56 and above is bullish, below 45 is bearish, and the band between is neutral on purpose. A gap narrower than 11 points between the two sides is inside that band, and the honest reading of it is that the pair is not offering much.
Does this page say when to trade?
No. It is a composite of published inputs with every weight and driver visible in the terminal. It does not size a position, set a stop or say when to enter, and nothing here is financial advice.
How current is this page?
The reading built into this page is from 12 November 2026, and both composites refresh from the terminal's public feed while the page is open. In WatchTower Terminal, Asset scores carries both sides with every driver, and Pair in full and Pair comparison read the pair itself. The terminal is $10 for your first month, then $49 a month.