Bank of Japan · meeting preview · 18 Dec 2026
Will the Bank of Japan cut or hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 57% chance that the Bank of Japan raises rates at its 18 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 1.39% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). The policy rate is 1.25% going in.
Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 73%, so the pricing has eased by 16 points.
What is priced for 18 December
| Reading | Hike | Hold | Cut | Implied rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now12 Nov | 57% | 43% | 0% | 1.39% |
| Two weeks before29 Oct | 73% | 27% | 0% | 1.40% |
| Four weeks before15 Oct | 72% | 28% | 0% | 1.40% |
Read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) on WatchTower Terminal. The history starts with our daily snapshots; a row is missing where no market-built snapshot exists for that day.
And after December
- 22 Jan 202751% hike1.52%
- 18 Mar 202758% hold1.63%
- 28 Apr 202766% hold1.71%
Questions
Will the Bank of Japan hike in December 2026?
As of 12 November 2026, markets price a 57% chance that the Bank of Japan raises rates at its 18 December 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 1.39% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model). Two weeks earlier (29 Oct) the same outcome led at 73%, so the pricing has eased by 16 points.
When is the Bank of Japan's December 2026 meeting?
The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is on Friday, 18 December 2026, per its own published calendar.
What are the odds for the Bank of Japan's December meeting?
As of 12 November 2026: hike 57%, hold 43%, cut 0%. The three are read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
What is priced after December?
22 Jan 2027: 51% hike, 1.52% implied; 18 Mar 2027: 58% hold, 1.63% implied; 28 Apr 2027: 66% hold, 1.71% implied.
- What is priced for the Bank of Japan, every meeting
- Every central bank meeting date in 2027
- The 2027 interest rate outlook
- JPY macro outlook
- JPY COT positioning
Other meetings coming up: Reserve Bank of Australia, 8 Dec · Federal Reserve, 9 Dec · Bank of Canada, 9 Dec · Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 9 Dec · Swiss National Bank, 10 Dec · European Central Bank, 17 Dec · Bank of England, 17 Dec
In WatchTower Terminal the Central bank panel moves with the pricing through the day; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Nothing here is financial advice.