Bank of Japan rate expectations · priced as of 12 November 2026 · free data
Will the Bank of Japan cut or hike at its next meeting?
The market has a leaning toward a 25bp hike (56.6%) at the Bank of Japan's next meeting on 18 December 2026.
Reading of 12 Nov, 07:12 London
BoJ watch: Bank of Japan rate probabilities, meeting by meeting
What is priced at the next decision, and the split at every meeting for the next twelve months.
Bank of Japan
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model
| Meeting | Implied rate | vs now | Cut | Hold | Hike | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Dec 26 | 1.39% | +14bp | · | 43.4% | 56.6% | Hike 56.6% |
| 22 Jan 27 | 1.52% | +27bp | · | 48.9% | 51.1% | Hike 51.1% |
| 18 Mar 27 | 1.63% | +38bp | · | 57.6% | 42.4% | Hold 57.6% |
| 28 Apr 27 | 1.71% | +46bp | · | 66.0% | 34.0% | Hold 66.0% |
| 11 Jun 27 | 1.77% | +52bp | · | 75.0% | 25.0% | Hold 75.0% |
| 22 Jul 27 | 1.82% | +57bp | · | 80.0% | 20.0% | Hold 80.0% |
| 22 Sept 27 | 1.86% | +61bp | · | 85.0% | 15.0% | Hold 85.0% |
| 29 Oct 27 | 1.91% | +66bp | · | 79.9% | 20.1% | Hold 79.9% |
Implied rate is where the market prices the policy rate after each meeting, for the next twelve months. The split is for that meeting alone, from the step priced since the meeting before, in 25bp moves. Derived from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model.
Preview of the 18 December 2026 meeting · Every 2027 meeting date · The 2027 rate outlook
What it is built from
Where this number comes from, and what it cannot tell you.
Japanese rate futures are thinner than their US and European equivalents, so a curve can be moved by less trade, and a single print can shift the next meeting further than it would in a deeper market.
A market-implied probability is not a forecast. It is the step the market has priced between one meeting and the next, divided by the size of a policy step. It says what has been paid for, not what will happen, and it moves whenever the curve does.
BOJ rate expectations, answered.
When is the next BOJ meeting?
Bank of Japan meets next on 18 December 2026. That is 36 days away.
What is BOJ expected to do at the next meeting?
The market has a leaning toward a 25bp hike (56.6%) at the Bank of Japan's next meeting on 18 December 2026. This is read from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model, and it is what the market expects rather than a forecast of our own.
What is the current BOJ policy balance rate?
1.25%, as of 12 November 2026.
What is this figure derived from?
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model Japanese rate futures are thinner than their US and European equivalents, so a curve can be moved by less trade, and a single print can shift the next meeting further than it would in a deeper market.
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