Bank of England rate expectations · priced as of 12 November 2026 · free data
Will the Bank of England cut or hike at its next meeting?
The market has a leaning toward a 25bp hike (65%) at the Bank of England's next meeting on 17 December 2026.
Reading of 12 Nov, 07:12 London
BoE watch: Bank of England rate probabilities, meeting by meeting
What is priced at the next decision, and the split at every meeting for the next twelve months.
Bank of England
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model
| Meeting | Implied rate | vs now | Cut | Hold | Hike | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec 26 | 4.16% | +16bp | · | 35.0% | 65.0% | Hike 65.0% |
| 4 Feb 27 | 4.32% | +32bp | · | 36.3% | 63.7% | Hike 63.7% |
| 18 Mar 27 | 4.48% | +48bp | · | 37.8% | 62.2% | Hike 62.2% |
| 29 Apr 27 | 4.60% | +60bp | · | 52.6% | 47.4% | Hold 52.6% |
| 17 Jun 27 | 4.67% | +67bp | · | 69.6% | 30.4% | Hold 69.6% |
| 29 Jul 27 | 4.73% | +73bp | · | 76.5% | 23.5% | Hold 76.5% |
| 16 Sept 27 | 4.77% | +77bp | · | 84.7% | 15.3% | Hold 84.7% |
| 4 Nov 27 | 4.77% | +77bp | · | 100% | · | Hold 100% |
Implied rate is where the market prices the policy rate after each meeting, for the next twelve months. The split is for that meeting alone, from the step priced since the meeting before, in 25bp moves. Derived from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model.
Preview of the 17 December 2026 meeting · Every 2027 meeting date · The 2027 rate outlook · The 5 November 2026 decision
What it is built from
Where this number comes from, and what it cannot tell you.
SONIA forwards track Bank Rate closely, so the translation into policy space is short. The Bank publishes a vote split alongside each decision, and a three-way split moves the next meeting more than the decision itself did.
A market-implied probability is not a forecast. It is the step the market has priced between one meeting and the next, divided by the size of a policy step. It says what has been paid for, not what will happen, and it moves whenever the curve does.
BOE rate expectations, answered.
When is the next BOE meeting?
Bank of England meets next on 17 December 2026. That is 35 days away.
What is BOE expected to do at the next meeting?
The market has a leaning toward a 25bp hike (65%) at the Bank of England's next meeting on 17 December 2026. This is read from Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model, and it is what the market expects rather than a forecast of our own.
What is the current BOE Bank Rate?
4.00%, as of 12 November 2026.
What is this figure derived from?
Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model SONIA forwards track Bank Rate closely, so the translation into policy space is short. The Bank publishes a vote split alongside each decision, and a three-way split moves the next meeting more than the decision itself did.
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