Federal Reserve rate expectations · priced as of 12 November 2026 · free data
Will the Fed cut or hike at its next meeting?
The market has a 25bp hike fully priced (92.9%) at the Federal Reserve's next meeting on 9 December 2026.
Reading of 12 Nov, 07:12 London
Fed watch: Federal Reserve rate probabilities, meeting by meeting
What is priced at the next decision, and the split at every meeting for the next twelve months.
Federal Reserve
Exchange-traded futures
| Meeting | Implied rate | vs now | Cut | Hold | Hike | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Dec 26 | 4.27% | +27bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
| 26 Jan 27 | 4.45% | +45bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
| 16 Mar 27 | 4.57% | +57bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
| 27 Apr 27 | 4.66% | +66bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
| 8 Jun 27 | 4.74% | +74bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
| 27 Jul 27 | 4.76% | +76bp | · | · | 100% | Hike 100% |
Implied rate is where the market prices the policy rate after each meeting, for the next twelve months. The split is for that meeting alone, from the step priced since the meeting before, in 25bp moves. Derived from Exchange-traded futures.
Preview of the 9 December 2026 meeting · Every 2027 meeting date · The 2027 rate outlook
What it is built from
Where this number comes from, and what it cannot tell you.
The Fed publishes a target range rather than a single rate, so the implied level is read against the upper bound. SOFR futures are deep and trade around the clock, which makes this the most reliable of the eight curves and the one least likely to move on thin volume.
A market-implied probability is not a forecast. It is the step the market has priced between one meeting and the next, divided by the size of a policy step. It says what has been paid for, not what will happen, and it moves whenever the curve does.
Fed rate expectations, answered.
When is the next Fed meeting?
Federal Reserve meets next on 9 December 2026. That is 27 days away.
What is Fed expected to do at the next meeting?
The market has a 25bp hike fully priced (92.9%) at the Federal Reserve's next meeting on 9 December 2026. This is read from Exchange-traded futures, and it is what the market expects rather than a forecast of our own.
What is the current Fed federal funds target range?
4.00%, as of 12 November 2026.
What is this figure derived from?
Exchange-traded futures The Fed publishes a target range rather than a single rate, so the implied level is read against the upper bound. SOFR futures are deep and trade around the clock, which makes this the most reliable of the eight curves and the one least likely to move on thin volume.
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