Reserve Bank of Australia · decided · 3 Nov 2026
What did the RBA decide in November 2026?
On 3 November 2026, the RBA raised its rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%. The day before, on 2 November 2026, markets priced a 73% chance that the RBA raises rates at its 3 November 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 4.78% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
Two weeks earlier (20 Oct) the market leaned to a hold at 82%, so the lead has switched.
What was priced for 3 November
| Reading | Hike | Hold | Cut | Implied rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day before2 Nov | 73% | 27% | 0% | 4.78% |
| Two weeks before20 Oct | 18% | 82% | 0% | 4.64% |
| Four weeks before6 Oct | 19% | 81% | 0% | 4.65% |
Read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model) on WatchTower Terminal. The history starts with our daily snapshots; a row is missing where no market-built snapshot exists for that day.
Questions
What did the RBA do in November 2026?
On 3 November 2026, the RBA raised its rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%. The day before, on 2 November 2026, markets priced a 73% chance that the RBA raises rates at its 3 November 2026 meeting, with the policy rate implied at 4.78% after it, on WatchTower Terminal's read of exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
When is the RBA's November 2026 meeting?
The RBA's monetary policy board decision is on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, per its own published calendar.
What are the odds for the RBA's November meeting?
As of 2 November 2026: hike 73%, hold 27%, cut 0%. The three are read from exchange-traded futures (WatchTower model).
What is priced after November?
8 Dec 2026: 100% hold, 4.85% implied; 9 Feb 2027: 78% hold, 4.90% implied; 23 Mar 2027: 100% hold, 4.90% implied.
- What is priced for the RBA, every meeting
- Every central bank meeting date in 2027
- The 2027 interest rate outlook
- AUD macro outlook
- AUD COT positioning
Reserve Bank of Australia's other meeting pages: 8 Dec 2026
Other meetings coming up: Federal Reserve, 9 Dec · Bank of Canada, 9 Dec · Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 9 Dec · Swiss National Bank, 10 Dec · European Central Bank, 17 Dec · Bank of England, 17 Dec · Bank of Japan, 18 Dec
In WatchTower Terminal the Central bank panel moves with the pricing through the day; the terminal is $10 for the first month. Nothing here is financial advice.