Economic surprises · GBP · 12 November 2026
UK economic surprise index: is UK data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's UK economic surprise index reads +23.3 (beating): recent UK data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +5.9 on the week and +30.7 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 64% of the last 90 days.
The next UK release to watch is Unemployment Rate (Sep), on Tue 17 Nov, 07:00 UTC, with a forecast of 4.9% against 4.7% last time.
The last 10 UK data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Investment QoQ (Q3) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 0.4% | -0.2% | 1.8% | above forecast |
| Gross Domestic Product MoM (Sep) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | above forecast |
| Manufacturing Production MoM (Sep) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 0.7% | -0.5% | 0.7% | above forecast |
| Industrial Production MoM (Sep) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0.7% | above forecast |
| GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | in line |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | in line |
| GDP 3-Month Avg (Sep) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | in line |
| Balance of Trade Non-EU (Sep) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | -8.99B | -5.7B | -6.82B | below forecast |
| Goods Trade Balance (Sep) | Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 UTC | -22.29B | -19.2B | -19.61B | below forecast |
| RICS House Price Balance (Oct) | Thu 12 Nov, 00:01 UTC | -36% | -32% | -34% | below forecast |
Medium and high importance UK releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is UK data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's UK economic surprise index reads +23.3 (beating): recent UK data has been beating expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is +5.9 on the week and +30.7 over a month, positive and rising, and higher than on 64% of the last 90 days.
What was the last UK data surprise?
The latest, Business Investment QoQ (Q3) on 12 November, came in at 0.4% against a forecast of -0.2%, above forecast.
What is the next UK release to watch?
The next UK release to watch is Unemployment Rate (Sep), on Tue 17 Nov, 07:00 UTC, with a forecast of 4.9% against 4.7% last time.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the pound: British Pound outlook · British Pound COT positioning · BoE rate expectations
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