Economic surprises · AUD · 12 November 2026
Australian economic surprise index: is Australian data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Australian economic surprise index reads −15.5 (missing): recent Australian data has been missing expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is 0.0 on the week and +7.0 over a month, negative but improving, and higher than on 16% of the last 90 days.
The next Australian release to watch is RBA Meeting Minutes, on Tue 17 Nov, 00:30 UTC.
The last 10 Australian data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Lending for Homes (Q3) | Wed 11 Nov, 00:30 UTC | -32.3% | -14% | -11.2% | below forecast |
| Home Loans QoQ (Q3) | Wed 11 Nov, 00:30 UTC | -5.3% | -6% | -2% | above forecast |
| NAB Business Confidence (Oct) | Tue 10 Nov, 00:30 UTC | -15 | -14 | -14 | below forecast |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Nov) | Mon 9 Nov, 23:30 UTC | -2.7% | -2.6% | -4.7% | below forecast |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov) | Mon 9 Nov, 23:30 UTC | 78.2 | 78.3 | 80.4 | below forecast |
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | Thu 5 Nov, 00:30 UTC | 2.826B | 0.8B | 0.184B | above forecast |
| Ai Group Industry Index (Oct) | Tue 3 Nov, 22:00 UTC | -19.1 | -24.9 | -24.2 | above forecast |
| Interest Rate Decision (Nov) | Tue 3 Nov, 03:30 UTC | 4.85% | 4.85% | 4.6% | in line |
| Producer Price Index QoQ (Q3) | Fri 30 Oct, 00:30 UTC | 1.1% | 1% | 1.3% | above forecast |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 UTC | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4% | above forecast |
Medium and high importance Australian releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is Australian data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Australian economic surprise index reads −15.5 (missing): recent Australian data has been missing expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is 0.0 on the week and +7.0 over a month, negative but improving, and higher than on 16% of the last 90 days.
What was the last Australian data surprise?
The latest, Investment Lending for Homes (Q3) on 11 November, came in at -32.3% against a forecast of -14%, below forecast.
What is the next Australian release to watch?
The next Australian release to watch is RBA Meeting Minutes, on Tue 17 Nov, 00:30 UTC.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the Australian dollar: Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations
Other currencies: USD +77.5 · EUR −3.5 · GBP +23.3 · JPY +11.3 · CHF +32.4 · CAD −88.3 · NZD −20.7 · MXN +10.4 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.