Economic surprises · CAD · 12 November 2026
Canadian economic surprise index: is Canadian data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Canadian economic surprise index reads −88.3 (strongly missing): recent Canadian data has been missing expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is −39.0 on the week and −27.1 over a month, negative and deteriorating, and higher than on 0% of the last 90 days.
The next Canadian release to watch is Inflation Rate YoY (Oct), on Mon 16 Nov, 13:30 UTC, with a forecast of 3.2% against 3.1% last time.
The last 10 Canadian data surprises: actual vs forecast
| Release | When | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Against forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivey PMI (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 58.3 | 58 | 58.2 | above forecast |
| Employment Change (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | -4.7K | 13.6K | -68.3K | below forecast |
| Participation Rate (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 64.8% | 64.9% | 64.8% | below forecast |
| Part Time Employment Chg (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 13.4K | 7K | -32.9K | above forecast |
| Unemployment Rate (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | above forecast |
| Full Time Employment Chg (Oct) | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC | -18.1K | 7K | -35.4K | below forecast |
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | Wed 4 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 5.35B | 4.1B | 4.95B | above forecast |
| Gross Domestic Product MoM (Sep) | Fri 30 Oct, 12:30 UTC | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0% | below forecast |
| Gross Domestic Product MoM (Aug) | Fri 30 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 0% | 0.2% | 0% | below forecast |
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.25% | in line |
Medium and high importance Canadian releases with a consensus forecast, newest first. "Above" or "below" is the number against the forecast; whether that is good or bad depends on the release, and the index reads each one the right way round. Release figures only.
Questions
Is Canadian data beating expectations?
As of 12 November 2026, WatchTower Terminal's Canadian economic surprise index reads −88.3 (strongly missing): recent Canadian data has been missing expectations, weighted by each release's importance and how recent it is. The index is −39.0 on the week and −27.1 over a month, negative and deteriorating, and higher than on 0% of the last 90 days.
What was the last Canadian data surprise?
The latest, Ivey PMI (Oct) on 6 November, came in at 58.3 against a forecast of 58, above forecast.
What is the next Canadian release to watch?
The next Canadian release to watch is Inflation Rate YoY (Oct), on Mon 16 Nov, 13:30 UTC, with a forecast of 3.2% against 3.1% last time.
How is the economic surprise index built?
From the economic calendar: each release's actual against its consensus forecast, scaled by how far releases of that kind usually miss, read in the direction that matters (a higher unemployment rate counts as weaker), weighted by the release's importance and decayed by age, so the last few weeks count most. Above zero means data has been beating forecasts; below zero, missing them. It is WatchTower Terminal's own index, not Citi's.
More on the Canadian dollar: Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations
Other currencies: USD +77.5 · EUR −3.5 · GBP +23.3 · JPY +11.3 · CHF +32.4 · AUD −15.5 · NZD −20.7 · MXN +10.4 · the surprise index for every currency
In WatchTower Terminal, the Data surprises panel ranks every currency on this index through the day. Not financial advice.