Seasonality · Dow Jones · 12 November 2026
Dow Jones seasonality: is November bullish for the Dow?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the Dow rose in November 12 times, with an average move of +3.74% and a median of +3.68%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.31% on average (median +1.38%).
Its best month on average is November (+3.74%, up in 12 of 14) and its worst is September (−0.86%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.84% | +1.19% | 9 of 15 | +7.26% (2019) | −5.53% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.32% | +1.35% | 10 of 15 | +5.68% (2015) | −9.87% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.25% | +0.75% | 8 of 15 | +7.08% (2016) | −13.88% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.18% | +0.74% | 11 of 15 | +10.94% (2020) | −4.94% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.37% | +1.08% | 12 of 15 | +4.55% (2020) | −6.61% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +1.02% | +0.93% | 10 of 15 | +7.10% (2019) | −6.78% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +2.28% | +2.51% | 14 of 15 | +6.77% (2022) | −1.55% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.23% | +0.92% | 9 of 15 | +7.54% (2020) | −6.51% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.86% | −0.47% | 7 of 15 | +2.42% (2012) | −8.98% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.79% | +1.69% | 9 of 15 | +13.96% (2022) | −5.00% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +3.74% | +3.68% | 12 of 14 | +11.91% (2020) | −3.72% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.31% | +1.38% | 10 of 15 | +5.34% (2021) | −8.73% (2018) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the daily close of a fund that tracks the index, dividends included, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
Dow Jones in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.32% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +7.76% |
| November 2023 | +8.93% |
| November 2022 | +5.72% |
| November 2021 | −3.72% |
| November 2020 | +11.91% |
| November 2019 | +3.87% |
| November 2018 | +1.72% |
| November 2017 | +3.94% |
| November 2016 | +5.65% |
| November 2015 | +0.42% |
| November 2014 | +2.68% |
| November 2013 | +3.50% |
| November 2012 | −0.38% |
Questions
Is November bullish for the Dow?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the Dow rose in November 12 times, with an average move of +3.74% and a median of +3.68%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −3.72% (2021) to +11.91% (2020). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for the Dow?
Its best month on average is November (+3.74%, up in 12 of 14) and its worst is September (−0.86%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the daily close of a fund that tracks the index, dividends included, month-end to month-end.
What happens to the Dow in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.31% on average (median +1.38%).
How reliable is Dow Jones seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the Dow Jones seasonal pattern stable across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on the Dow: Dow Jones outlook · Dow Jones COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Gold in Nov −0.96% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the Dow Jones path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.