Seasonality · Nasdaq 100 · 12 November 2026
Nasdaq 100 seasonality: is November bullish for the Nasdaq 100?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the Nasdaq 100 rose in November 12 times, with an average move of +3.54% and a median of +2.77%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, −0.44% on average (median +0.29%).
Its best month on average is November (+3.54%, up in 12 of 14) and its worst is September (−0.88%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.23% | +2.16% | 11 of 15 | +10.64% (2023) | −8.75% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.83% | −0.13% | 7 of 15 | +7.22% (2015) | −6.06% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.43% | +1.59% | 9 of 15 | +9.32% (2023) | −7.72% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.93% | +1.40% | 10 of 15 | +15.69% (2026) | −13.60% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +3.11% | +4.37% | 11 of 15 | +10.57% (2026) | −8.22% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +1.71% | +2.85% | 9 of 15 | +7.35% (2019) | −9.08% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +3.35% | +2.86% | 13 of 15 | +12.55% (2022) | −6.57% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +1.65% | +1.10% | 10 of 15 | +10.95% (2020) | −6.82% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.88% | −0.46% | 7 of 15 | +5.25% (2025) | −10.70% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.11% | +2.64% | 8 of 15 | +11.37% (2015) | −8.60% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +3.54% | +2.77% | 12 of 14 | +11.23% (2020) | −1.56% (2025) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.44% | +0.29% | 8 of 15 | +5.32% (2023) | −9.23% (2022) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the daily close of a fund that tracks the index, dividends included, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
Nasdaq 100 in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −1.56% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +5.35% |
| November 2023 | +10.82% |
| November 2022 | +5.54% |
| November 2021 | +2.00% |
| November 2020 | +11.23% |
| November 2019 | +4.07% |
| November 2018 | −0.27% |
| November 2017 | +1.97% |
| November 2016 | +0.44% |
| November 2015 | +0.61% |
| November 2014 | +4.55% |
| November 2013 | +3.55% |
| November 2012 | +1.31% |
Questions
Is November bullish for the Nasdaq 100?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), the Nasdaq 100 rose in November 12 times, with an average move of +3.54% and a median of +2.77%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −1.56% (2025) to +11.23% (2020). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for the Nasdaq 100?
Its best month on average is November (+3.54%, up in 12 of 14) and its worst is September (−0.88%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the daily close of a fund that tracks the index, dividends included, month-end to month-end.
What happens to the Nasdaq 100 in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, −0.44% on average (median +0.29%).
How reliable is Nasdaq 100 seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the Nasdaq 100 seasonal pattern stable across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on the Nasdaq 100: Nasdaq 100 outlook · Nasdaq 100 COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Gold in Nov −0.96% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the Nasdaq 100 path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.