Seasonality · WTI crude oil · 12 November 2026
WTI crude oil seasonality: is November bullish for oil?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), oil rose in November 5 times, with an average move of −3.55% and a median of −3.02%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +0.50% on average (median +3.27%).
Its best month on average is May (+3.07%, up in 7 of 15) and its worst is November (−3.55%, up in 5 of 14).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.54% | +1.13% | 8 of 15 | +18.45% (2019) | −15.56% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +1.92% | +2.78% | 10 of 15 | +17.82% (2021) | −13.19% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +1.28% | +2.47% | 8 of 15 | +51.27% (2026) | −54.24% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +2.63% | +1.80% | 9 of 15 | +25.27% (2015) | −18.57% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +3.07% | −1.59% | 7 of 15 | +88.38% (2020) | −17.49% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +1.73% | +3.75% | 9 of 15 | +10.78% (2021) | −22.45% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +0.59% | +0.65% | 9 of 15 | +21.83% (2026) | −20.77% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.60% | +1.29% | 8 of 15 | +9.55% (2012) | −9.20% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.37% | −2.56% | 6 of 15 | +9.53% (2021) | −11.23% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −1.06% | −2.23% | 7 of 15 | +15.15% (2026) | −11.65% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −3.55% | −3.02% | 5 of 14 | +26.68% (2020) | −22.02% (2018) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.50% | +3.27% | 8 of 15 | +13.64% (2021) | −19.47% (2014) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
WTI crude oil in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −2.25% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −1.82% |
| November 2023 | −6.25% |
| November 2022 | −6.91% |
| November 2021 | −20.81% |
| November 2020 | +26.68% |
| November 2019 | +1.83% |
| November 2018 | −22.02% |
| November 2017 | +5.55% |
| November 2016 | +5.51% |
| November 2015 | −10.60% |
| November 2014 | −17.87% |
| November 2013 | −3.80% |
| November 2012 | +3.10% |
Questions
Is November bullish for oil?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), oil rose in November 5 times, with an average move of −3.55% and a median of −3.02%. That is a bearish lean; the range runs from −22.02% (2018) to +26.68% (2020). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for oil?
Its best month on average is May (+3.07%, up in 7 of 15) and its worst is November (−3.55%, up in 5 of 14). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end.
What happens to oil in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +0.50% on average (median +3.27%).
How reliable is WTI crude oil seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the WTI crude oil seasonal pattern mixed across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on oil: WTI crude oil outlook · WTI crude oil COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Gold in Nov −0.96% · Silver in Nov −0.27% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the WTI crude oil path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.