Seasonality · Silver · 12 November 2026
Silver seasonality: is November bullish for silver?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), silver rose in November 4 times, with an average move of −0.27% and a median of −4.14%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +1.88% on average (median +0.71%).
Its best month on average is January (+4.27%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is September (−2.37%, up in 6 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +4.27% | +3.19% | 11 of 15 | +19.16% (2012) | −4.11% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.44% | −1.76% | 6 of 15 | +18.80% (2026) | −11.60% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −1.29% | −0.85% | 6 of 15 | +14.64% (2023) | −19.69% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.45% | −1.19% | 6 of 15 | +15.23% (2016) | −14.61% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.45% | +0.35% | 8 of 15 | +23.55% (2020) | −10.51% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −1.31% | −2.40% | 5 of 15 | +16.60% (2016) | −20.73% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +2.51% | +0.81% | 8 of 15 | +29.93% (2020) | −5.37% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +3.76% | +0.71% | 8 of 15 | +19.79% (2013) | −11.46% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −2.37% | −5.12% | 6 of 15 | +14.53% (2025) | −17.84% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.48% | +0.65% | 10 of 15 | +8.63% (2021) | −18.64% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −0.27% | −4.14% | 4 of 14 | +20.30% (2025) | −9.51% (2015) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +1.88% | +0.71% | 8 of 15 | +21.87% (2025) | −14.90% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
Silver in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +20.30% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −6.44% |
| November 2023 | +11.80% |
| November 2022 | +13.92% |
| November 2021 | −4.74% |
| November 2020 | −4.45% |
| November 2019 | −6.08% |
| November 2018 | −0.46% |
| November 2017 | −1.31% |
| November 2016 | −7.38% |
| November 2015 | −9.51% |
| November 2014 | −3.83% |
| November 2013 | −8.63% |
| November 2012 | +2.98% |
Questions
Is November bullish for silver?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), silver rose in November 4 times, with an average move of −0.27% and a median of −4.14%. That is a bearish lean; the range runs from −9.51% (2015) to +20.30% (2025). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for silver?
Its best month on average is January (+4.27%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is September (−2.37%, up in 6 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from daily closes in US dollars, month-end to month-end.
What happens to silver in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +1.88% on average (median +0.71%).
How reliable is silver seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. WatchTower Terminal rates the silver seasonal pattern diverging across its 5, 10 and 15-year paths. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on silver: XAGUSD analysis · Silver retail sentiment · Silver outlook · Silver COT positioning
Other seasonality: US Dollar in Nov +0.16% · Gold in Nov −0.96% · Platinum in Nov −1.16% · Palladium in Nov +0.80% · Copper in Nov +2.35% · WTI crude oil in Nov −3.55% · S&P 500 in Nov +3.56% · Nasdaq 100 in Nov +3.54% · Dow Jones in Nov +3.74% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the Silver path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.