Seasonality · EUR/NZD · 12 November 2026
EUR/NZD seasonality: is November bullish for EUR/NZD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/NZD rose in November 5 times, with an average move of −1.09% and a median of −1.52%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, −0.15% on average (median −0.16%).
Its best month on average is August (+1.50%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is November (−1.09%, up in 5 of 14).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.19% | −0.44% | 6 of 15 | +5.50% (2016) | −4.76% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.39% | +0.23% | 8 of 15 | +3.00% (2020) | −4.88% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.36% | +0.73% | 9 of 15 | +4.72% (2020) | −3.61% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.68% | +0.39% | 10 of 15 | +3.93% (2017) | −3.83% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.56% | +0.20% | 8 of 15 | +6.14% (2013) | −2.81% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.17% | +0.19% | 8 of 15 | +6.44% (2015) | −5.81% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.14% | −0.11% | 7 of 15 | +3.58% (2024) | −3.84% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +1.50% | +2.03% | 10 of 15 | +5.92% (2015) | −2.64% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.09% | −0.09% | 7 of 15 | +5.71% (2022) | −4.75% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.22% | −0.63% | 5 of 15 | +4.14% (2024) | −6.57% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −1.09% | −1.52% | 5 of 14 | +2.92% (2021) | −5.16% (2018) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.15% | −0.16% | 7 of 15 | +3.72% (2018) | −4.01% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
EUR/NZD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.35% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −2.21% |
| November 2023 | −2.64% |
| November 2022 | −2.67% |
| November 2021 | +2.92% |
| November 2020 | −3.37% |
| November 2019 | −1.30% |
| November 2018 | −5.16% |
| November 2017 | +2.15% |
| November 2016 | −2.48% |
| November 2015 | −1.55% |
| November 2014 | −1.49% |
| November 2013 | +1.56% |
| November 2012 | +0.63% |
Questions
Is November bullish for EUR/NZD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/NZD rose in November 5 times, with an average move of −1.09% and a median of −1.52%. That is a bearish lean; the range runs from −5.16% (2018) to +2.92% (2021). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for EUR/NZD?
Its best month on average is August (+1.50%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is November (−1.09%, up in 5 of 14). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to EUR/NZD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, −0.15% on average (median −0.16%).
How reliable is EUR/NZD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on EUR/NZD: EUR/NZD analysis · EUR/NZD rate differential · EUR/NZD retail sentiment · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/USD in Nov −0.12% · NZD/USD in Nov +1.04% · EUR/GBP in Nov −0.67% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/CHF in Nov −0.27% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · GBP/NZD in Nov −0.40% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the EUR/NZD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.