Seasonality · AUD/NZD · 12 November 2026
AUD/NZD seasonality: is November bullish for AUD/NZD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/NZD rose in November 3 times, with an average move of −0.97% and a median of −1.44%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 5 of 15 years, −0.57% on average (median −0.41%).
Its best month on average is August (+0.76%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is November (−0.97%, up in 3 of 14).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.06% | −0.36% | 5 of 15 | +2.65% (2016) | −2.14% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.19% | −0.17% | 5 of 15 | +2.77% (2017) | −3.50% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.26% | +0.31% | 8 of 15 | +2.61% (2017) | −1.81% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.30% | +0.74% | 10 of 15 | +2.96% (2020) | −2.91% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.04% | +0.54% | 8 of 15 | +3.93% (2015) | −3.87% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.15% | +0.15% | 9 of 15 | +5.53% (2015) | −2.44% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.20% | +0.33% | 8 of 15 | +1.74% (2014) | −4.68% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.76% | +1.05% | 10 of 15 | +3.91% (2017) | −1.61% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.01% | +0.46% | 9 of 15 | +2.83% (2025) | −2.58% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.10% | +0.71% | 10 of 15 | +3.16% (2017) | −4.04% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −0.97% | −1.44% | 3 of 14 | +4.39% (2015) | −3.78% (2014) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.57% | −0.41% | 5 of 15 | +2.29% (2020) | −3.58% (2014) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
AUD/NZD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −0.07% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +0.07% |
| November 2023 | −1.48% |
| November 2022 | −2.09% |
| November 2021 | −0.58% |
| November 2020 | −1.40% |
| November 2019 | −1.91% |
| November 2018 | −2.13% |
| November 2017 | −1.25% |
| November 2016 | −1.92% |
| November 2015 | +4.39% |
| November 2014 | −3.78% |
| November 2013 | −2.23% |
| November 2012 | +0.80% |
Questions
Is November bullish for AUD/NZD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/NZD rose in November 3 times, with an average move of −0.97% and a median of −1.44%. That is a bearish lean; the range runs from −3.78% (2014) to +4.39% (2015). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for AUD/NZD?
Its best month on average is August (+0.76%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is November (−0.97%, up in 3 of 14). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to AUD/NZD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 5 of 15 years, −0.57% on average (median −0.41%).
How reliable is AUD/NZD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on AUD/NZD: AUD/NZD analysis · AUD/NZD rate differential · AUD/NZD retail sentiment · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises
Other seasonality: AUD/USD in Nov +0.03% · NZD/USD in Nov +1.04% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · GBP/NZD in Nov −0.40% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · AUD/CHF in Nov −0.11% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the AUD/NZD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.