Positioning · retail sentiment · read at 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026
AUD/NZD retail sentiment: long vs short
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 34% of retail traders are long AUD/NZD and 66% short, a long/short ratio of 0.52. A week earlier, on 5 November, 34% were long, so the crowd is about where it was this week.
The long share over 120 days
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 12% to 55%; today's reading is higher than on 78% of those days.
The COT view beside it
Speculators in Australian dollar futures are net long 50,106 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 82nd percentile of their own range. Australian Dollar COT positioning
Speculators in New Zealand dollar futures are net short 23,154 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 26th percentile of their own range. New Zealand Dollar COT positioning
Retail shows the crowd at retail brokers; the CFTC report shows speculators in futures, weekly. The two often sit on opposite sides. This week's full report: the COT report.
Questions
Are retail traders long or short AUD/NZD?
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 34% of retail traders are long AUD/NZD and 66% short, a long/short ratio of 0.52. The crowd leans short, 66% on one side.
How has AUD/NZD retail sentiment changed this week?
A week earlier, on 5 November, 34% were long, so the crowd is about where it was this week.
Is AUD/NZD retail positioning extreme?
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 12% to 55%; today's reading is higher than on 78% of those days. That is inside its recent range rather than at an edge of it.
What does the COT report say about AUD/NZD?
Speculators in Australian dollar futures are net long 50,106 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 82nd percentile of their own range. Speculators in New Zealand dollar futures are net short 23,154 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 26th percentile of their own range.
How do traders read retail sentiment?
Many traders read it as a contrarian gauge: a crowd leaning heavily one way has often been on the wrong side of the move that follows, and is the side forced out when price runs against it. It is a description of positioning, not a signal. In WatchTower Terminal's composite score retail positioning is read that way, at a weight of 10%, alongside CFTC positioning, rates and research.
More on AUD/NZD: AUD/NZD analysis · AUD/NZD rate differential · AUD/NZD seasonality · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises
Other pairs: AUD/CAD 46% long · AUD/CHF 79% long · AUD/JPY 54% long · AUD/USD 64% long · EUR/AUD 52% long · EUR/NZD 38% long · GBP/AUD 50% long · GBP/NZD 39% long · NZD/CAD 61% long · NZD/CHF 83% long · all 30
Aggregated retail broker positioning, read every 20 minutes in the terminal; this page is rebuilt through the day. Not financial advice.