Positioning · retail sentiment · read at 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026
NZD/CAD retail sentiment: long vs short
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 61% of retail traders are long NZD/CAD and 39% short, a long/short ratio of 1.56. A week earlier, on 5 November, 75% were long, so the crowd is 14 points more short this week.
The long share over 120 days
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 6% to 87%; today's reading is higher than on 37% of those days.
The COT view beside it
Speculators in New Zealand dollar futures are net short 23,154 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 26th percentile of their own range. New Zealand Dollar COT positioning
Speculators in Canadian dollar futures are net short 86,302 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 21st percentile of their own range. Canadian Dollar COT positioning
Retail shows the crowd at retail brokers; the CFTC report shows speculators in futures, weekly. The two often sit on opposite sides. This week's full report: the COT report.
Questions
Are retail traders long or short NZD/CAD?
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 61% of retail traders are long NZD/CAD and 39% short, a long/short ratio of 1.56. The crowd leans long, 61% on one side.
How has NZD/CAD retail sentiment changed this week?
A week earlier, on 5 November, 75% were long, so the crowd is 14 points more short this week.
Is NZD/CAD retail positioning extreme?
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 6% to 87%; today's reading is higher than on 37% of those days. That is inside its recent range rather than at an edge of it.
What does the COT report say about NZD/CAD?
Speculators in New Zealand dollar futures are net short 23,154 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 26th percentile of their own range. Speculators in Canadian dollar futures are net short 86,302 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 21st percentile of their own range.
How do traders read retail sentiment?
Many traders read it as a contrarian gauge: a crowd leaning heavily one way has often been on the wrong side of the move that follows, and is the side forced out when price runs against it. It is a description of positioning, not a signal. In WatchTower Terminal's composite score retail positioning is read that way, at a weight of 10%, alongside CFTC positioning, rates and research.
More on NZD/CAD: NZD/CAD analysis · NZD/CAD rate differential · NZD/CAD seasonality · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other pairs: AUD/CAD 46% long · AUD/NZD 34% long · CAD/CHF 80% long · CAD/JPY 59% long · EUR/CAD 53% long · EUR/NZD 38% long · GBP/CAD 33% long · GBP/NZD 39% long · NZD/CHF 83% long · NZD/JPY 70% long · all 30
Aggregated retail broker positioning, read every 20 minutes in the terminal; this page is rebuilt through the day. Not financial advice.