Rate differentials · RBNZ vs BoC · priced as of 12 November 2026
NZD/CAD interest rate differential: RBNZ vs BoC
As of 12 November 2026, the NZD/CAD interest rate differential is +25 bp: the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75% against the BoC's overnight rate at 2.50%, in favour of the New Zealand dollar. Markets price the gap at +52 bp in six months and +54 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move +27 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar. That six-month gap has moved −28 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| RBNZ (NZD) | BoC (CAD) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 2.75% | 2.50% | +25 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 3.43% | 2.91% | +52 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 3.69% | 3.16% | +54 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 3.55% | 2.75% | +81 bp |
The gap is NZD minus CAD, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: RBNZ · BoC.
The carry on NZD/CAD
The New Zealand dollar: the RBNZ pays 2.75% against 2.50%, a gap of +25 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the NZD/CAD interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the NZD/CAD interest rate differential is +25 bp: the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75% against the BoC's overnight rate at 2.50%, in favour of the New Zealand dollar. Markets price the gap at +52 bp in six months and +54 bp in twelve.
Is the RBNZ–BoC gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move +27 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar, from +25 bp now to +52 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at +81 bp, so it has moved −28 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of NZD/CAD has the carry?
The New Zealand dollar: the RBNZ pays 2.75% against 2.50%, a gap of +25 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for RBNZ, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for BoC. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on NZD/CAD: NZD/CAD analysis · NZD/CAD retail sentiment · NZD/CAD seasonality · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other rate differentials: USD/CAD +150 bp · NZD/USD −125 bp · EUR/CAD 0 bp · EUR/NZD −25 bp · GBP/CAD +150 bp · GBP/NZD +125 bp · AUD/NZD +210 bp · AUD/CAD +235 bp · NZD/JPY +150 bp · CAD/JPY +125 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the NZD/CAD gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.