Rate differentials · ECB vs BoC · priced as of 12 November 2026
EUR/CAD interest rate differential: ECB vs BoC
As of 12 November 2026, the EUR/CAD interest rate differential is 0 bp: the ECB's deposit rate at 2.50% against the BoC's overnight rate at 2.50%. Markets price the gap at +10 bp in six months and +1 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move +10 bp over six months, towards the euro. That six-month gap has moved −9 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| ECB (EUR) | BoC (CAD) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 2.50% | 2.50% | 0 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 3.00% | 2.91% | +10 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 3.17% | 3.16% | +1 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 2.93% | 2.75% | +19 bp |
The gap is EUR minus CAD, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: ECB · BoC.
The carry on EUR/CAD
Neither: both banks set 2.50%, so the policy gap is zero and there is no carry between them.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the EUR/CAD interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the EUR/CAD interest rate differential is 0 bp: the ECB's deposit rate at 2.50% against the BoC's overnight rate at 2.50%. Markets price the gap at +10 bp in six months and +1 bp in twelve.
Is the ECB–BoC gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move +10 bp over six months, towards the euro, from 0 bp now to +10 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at +19 bp, so it has moved −9 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of EUR/CAD has the carry?
Neither: both banks set 2.50%, so the policy gap is zero and there is no carry between them.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for ECB, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for BoC. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on EUR/CAD: EUR/CAD analysis · EUR/CAD retail sentiment · EUR/CAD seasonality · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other rate differentials: EUR/USD −150 bp · USD/CAD +150 bp · EUR/GBP −150 bp · EUR/JPY +125 bp · EUR/CHF +250 bp · EUR/AUD −235 bp · EUR/NZD −25 bp · GBP/CAD +150 bp · AUD/CAD +235 bp · CAD/JPY +125 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the EUR/CAD gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.