Rate differentials · ECB vs RBA · priced as of 12 November 2026
EUR/AUD interest rate differential: ECB vs RBA
As of 12 November 2026, the EUR/AUD interest rate differential is −235 bp: the ECB's deposit rate at 2.50% against the RBA's cash rate at 4.85%, in favour of the Australian dollar. Markets price the gap at −188 bp in six months and −151 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move +47 bp over six months, towards the euro. That six-month gap has moved +1 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| ECB (EUR) | RBA (AUD) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 2.50% | 4.85% | −235 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 3.00% | 4.88% | −188 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 3.17% | 4.68% | −151 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 2.93% | 4.82% | −189 bp |
The gap is EUR minus AUD, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: ECB · RBA.
The carry on EUR/AUD
The Australian dollar: the RBA pays 4.85% against 2.50%, a gap of +235 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the EUR/AUD interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the EUR/AUD interest rate differential is −235 bp: the ECB's deposit rate at 2.50% against the RBA's cash rate at 4.85%, in favour of the Australian dollar. Markets price the gap at −188 bp in six months and −151 bp in twelve.
Is the ECB–RBA gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move +47 bp over six months, towards the euro, from −235 bp now to −188 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at −189 bp, so it has moved +1 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of EUR/AUD has the carry?
The Australian dollar: the RBA pays 4.85% against 2.50%, a gap of +235 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for ECB, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for RBA. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on EUR/AUD: EUR/AUD analysis · EUR/AUD retail sentiment · EUR/AUD seasonality · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises
Other rate differentials: EUR/USD −150 bp · AUD/USD +85 bp · EUR/GBP −150 bp · EUR/JPY +125 bp · EUR/CHF +250 bp · EUR/CAD 0 bp · EUR/NZD −25 bp · GBP/AUD −85 bp · AUD/JPY +360 bp · AUD/NZD +210 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the EUR/AUD gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.